Low Intensity Conflict Report for 08 December – Forward Observer

Low Intensity Conflict Report for 08 December

ADMIN NOTE: The Holiday Season is upon us. Both Strategic Intelligence and Low Intensity Conflict will be published the week of Christmas (25-29 December), although both reports will be a Year in Review, identifying the trends of 2017 and looking forward to 2018. After the new year, Strategic Intelligence will be published regularly on Thursdays, and Low Intensity Conflict on Fridays. Thank you for the support, and we hope that you have a wonderful rest of the year with us.

ADMIN NOTEx2: Due to the increased reporting, PIR 1 will now be divided by region.

Priority Intelligence Requirements

  • PIR1: What indicators describe the Alt-Left movement’s strength, capabilities, sentiment, and capabilities?
  • PIR2: What indicators describe the Alt-Right movement’s strength, capabilities, sentiment, and capabilities?
  • PIR3: What are the new indicators of future politically-related violence?
  • PIR4: What is the current threat index score for the Alt-Left movement?
  • Alt-Left Roll-Up

PIR1: What indicators describe the Alt-Left movement’s strength, capabilities, sentiment, initiatives, and infighting?


Warrior Up: anarchists plan sabotage and violence (Capabilities/Initiatives)

A new online project called “Warrior Up: Techniques for Sabotaging Capitalist Infrastructure & Extractive Industries” put out a call to action by helping create a new instruction manual to help anarchists and other rebels carry out more effective methods of terrorism against the state and economy. They are seeking guides, obscure industry literature, counter insurgency manuals, and even non-English material that they will translate from French or Spanish. “We need the help of all the brilliant troublemakers in the international anarchist space to make this resource more relevant and comprehensive.” (Source:  https://insurrectionnewsworldwide.com/2017/12/08/new-online-project-warrior-up-techniques-for-sabotaging-capitalist-infrastructure-extractive-industries/) (Source:https://warriorup.noblogs.org/)

ASN encourages shoplifting during Christmas season (Initiatives)

The Autonomous Student Network (ASN) tweeted out an article encouraging shoplifting this holiday season. “Shoplifting is the most effective protest against all these objectionable attributes of modern corporations because it is not merely theoretical—it is practical, it involves action.” [Source: https://twitter.com/ASN_Austin/status/937062095069126656]

Leftist groups organize a Bitcoin mining project (Initiatives)

Leftist activists recently launched a Bitcoing mining project entitled “Bail Bloc.” Their goal is to have Leftist activists run the Bitcoin mining software on their computers in order to raise funds for the bail of arrested activists. “If 5000 ran Bail Bloc for 12 months we could raise $152,485 and get 1,684 cases dismissed.” [Source: https://twitter.com/Grimezsz/status/938131670011600896]

New York Times publishes article glamorizing Antifascist violence (Sentiment)

In an article published by the New York Times, journalist Rick Paulas interviews antifascists about black bloc tactics. Speaking on the importance of dressing in all black and covering your face as a member of a group, one antifascist organizer says that black bloc activities promote anonymity, aesthetic intimidation, and group solidarity. “It’s tactical, and practical, and it’s also an art form with the effect of building solidarity long after the boots go into the closet.” The article also outlines the reasoning behind black block apparel and tactics. [FULL REPORT]

Socialist explains how to win political seats ‘in Trump country’ (Initiatives)

Socialist politician Ross Grooters was recently profiled after his win in Iowa.  Here’s how Grooters claims he won the election:

  1. Volunteers knocked on thousands of doors and had thousands of conversations with voters.
  2. Identifying with the working class by fighting stagnant wages and rising health care costs
  3. Battling the anti-immigration fervor.
  4. Taking local issues like the water crisis head on.
  5. Raising the minimum wage.
  6. A focus on the fear of not being able to thrive and be wealthy.
  7. Getting away from identity politics and connecting likeminded voters, instead of dividing them by race, gender, etc.
  8. Finding social programs that are for everyone.

In the article, Grooters says that the difference between his campaign and other campaigns, is that his turned away from identity politics. He did not try to divide his voter base between gender, race, and sexual preference. However, he did not shy away from trying to drive a wedge between the middle/lower classes and the upper class. Grooters thinks that if the Left starts to stray away from identity politics and really focuses on social issues, they’re going to attract more and more voters. [source: http://inthesetimes.com/article/20719/democratic-socialist-ross-grooters-iowa]

List of Socialists who won seats in the 2017 November elections.

  • Lee Carter—Virginia legislature
  • Seema Perez— Knoxville City Council— Tennessee
  • JT Scott— Board of Aldermen— Somerville, Massachusetts
  • Ben Ewen-Campen— Board of Aldermen— Somerville, Massachusetts
  • Joel Sipress—City Council— Duluth, Minnesota
  • Anita Prizio— City Council— Allegheny, Pensylvania
  • Charles Decker— Alder of Ward— 9 Connecticut
  • Tristan Rader— City Council— Lakewood, Ohio
  • Vanessa Agueldo— City Council— Peekskill, New York
  • Denise Joy— City Council— Billings, Montana
  • Carlina Rivera— City Council district 2— New York
  • Brian Nowak— Town Council— Cheektowaga, New York
  • Kristen LaLonde— City Commissioner— Mt. Pleasant, Michigan
  • Kara Gloe— School board— Moorhead, South Dakota


East Coast

Alt-Left activists allegedly assault Trump supporter (Initiatives)

A Harvard student and Donald Trump supporter was assaulted by book fair attendees who were hosting author Mark Bray, the pro-Antifa author whose work encourages violence against their opponents. “(The victim) stated he was punched in the face by the female and he tried to protect himself. At this time he stated other members of the group also began to punch him,” police said in a statement. “(He) was unable to provide a detailed description of any member of the group that assaulted him. He stated that there were 2 females and some males but he could not tell if any of the males assaulted him.” [Source: http://www.bostonherald.com/news/local_coverage/2017/12/donald_trump_backer_allegedly_attacked_after_disruption_at_harvard_coop]



Houston anarchist book fair hosts “Punching Nazis” workshop (Initiatives)

During a workshop entitled, “Punching Nazis: A discussion of antifascist tactics,” presenter Kit O’Connell expressly supports violence in political opposition to the Alt-Right and associated groups. The slide show, which is available online, covers the antifascist situation in America, antifascist history, and some best practices and lessons learned for antifascist activists. The presentation includes encouragement to commit violence. [Source: https://www.ohshitwhatnow.org/2017/09/25/punching-nazis]

Professor gives anti-conservative speech at UT

George Ciccariello-Maher, the professor put on leave from Drexel University after tweeting “All I want for Christmas is white genocide,” gave a speech entitled “Making Campus Unsafe for White Supremacists” at the University of Texas campus. “Students need to organize to de-platform [Alt-Right] speakers, and they need to organize to establish structures for organizations, networks and alliances that will allow them to defend campus from the right.” (Source: http://www.dailytexanonline.com/2017/12/06/students-seek-guidance-to-make-campus-inhospitable-for-white-supremacy)


West Coast

PODER Conference on 30 December (Initiatives)

The Popular Organizing for Defense, Education and Revolution (PODER) conference is being held in Pomona, CA on December 30th, and is set to feature “regional revolutionary organizations”. “[A]ll organizations invited to participate are loosely ideologically bound by their commitment to the abolition of class society through revolution.” The purpose of the conference is to gather, network, and develop a strategy of resistance in the San Gabriel Valley and Inland Empire regions of California and beyond. “PODER will allow individuals and organizations to build relationships with one another and through critical discussion, begin to construct a strategic framework that can be applied to our regions.” [source: https://poderconference.org]

RAM opens new chapter in California (Strength)

The Revolutionary Abolitionist Movement (RAM) opened up a new chapter in the North Bay area of San Francisco. “Announcing The North Bay Area RAM Chapter in California. We intend to work along w/ our communities, radical & otherwise, build infrastructure sustained w/o the state, engage in self-defense & mutual aid, & enhance these cities & facilitate co-creative & transformative spaces.” (Source: https://twitter.com/RevAbolitionist/status/938493814012088320)

Northwest Antifas release another Discord leak (Capabilities)

Rose City Antifa (Portland, Oregon), Pacific Northwest Anti-Fascist Workers Collective, and Eugene Antifa (Oregon) recently released Discord server chat logs from a loose affiliation of various white nationalist groups in the Pacific Northwest. The discord chat logs do not reveal any sensitive info and appear no different than an average thread on /pol/. The Antifascists allege that their source “was a disgruntled member of one such group that decided to reveal the logs to activists.” [Source: http://rosecityantifa.org/articles/regional-groups/]

(Analyst Comment: Discord is a computer and smartphone app made for gamers, however, it’s increasingly the home of non-gamers. That’s especially been the case from some Alt-Right groups who’ve adopted the chat platform for their own online organizing. Antifascist activists have made mincemeat out of Alt-Right Discord servers, as this is at least the fifth such leak in the past two months. We can’t confirm the source information provided by Antifa, however, while it’s not impossible that a “disgruntled member” provided the chat logs, we believe it’s more likely that Antifa activists gained access to the chat server through social engineering.)

Mark Bray speaks at UC Davis (Initiatives)

Mark Bray, a history lecturer at Dartmouth College and Antifa supporter, was interviewed by The California Aggie about his speech at the University of California at Davis.  In the interview, Bray detailed why he thinks it’s important that people know the history of anti-fascists movements. Bray says that his bestselling book, “Antifa: The Anti-Fascist’s Handbook” is a, “menu of resistance” and encourages people to, “eat what they want.” In the article, Bray explains why fascism is a problem today, where it came from, and the threat that it poses. [FULL WRITE-UP]


Daily Roll-Ups*:

04 December

05 December

06 December

07 December

08 December

* The Daily Roll-Ups are a new feature and the reporting will become more in-depth as we continue to build out our collection capacity.

PIR2: What indicators describe the Alt-Right movement’s strength, capabilities, sentiment, initiatives, and infighting?

Alt-Right flash rally ends quickly in Washington D.C. (Strength/Initatives)

Notable Alt-Right leaders including Richard Spencer held a flash rally outside the White House on Sunday, 03 December. 20-30 individuals protesting the not guilty verdict of the Kate Steinle killer shouted chants of “Build Kate’s Wall” and “It’s Okay to be White”. Antifascists, who outnumbered the Alt-Right by two to one,  soon showed up and were kept back by heavy police presence. The flash rally ended about 20 minutes later and the police escorted the Spencer and the Alt-Right several blocks away to a subway station.

Antifascists organized a quick response through social media and text messages, which is becoming a common tactic to organize a quick reaction. “An ensemble of socialists, communists, anarchists, and other leftists gathered at an off-site location. Some would use masks and some would not. We had eyes and ears in the vicinity of the White House. At 1:45 PM, we began marching. Red and black flags were flown. The Nazis had said that they would meet at Lafayette Park, so we briefly convened in that park, on the north side of the White House. We got word that the Nazis had been spotted, heading toward the White House. We left Lafayette Park and marched down Pennsylvania Avenue to meet them.” [Source: http://idavox.com/index.php/2017/12/04/nazi-rally-fail-is-a-sign-the-fascists-are-morphing)

Identity Evropa launches new outreach, activist strategy (Initiatives)

In the wake of Eli Mosley stepping down as head of Identity Evropa, the group launched a new initiative this past weekend named “Operation Homeland” that promises to be a dedicated professional identitarian activist movement. “Our purpose is to plan and carry out bold demonstrations, train and mentor young activists, and foster collaboration among identitarians in America and around the world.” [Source: https://altright.com/2017/12/02/introducing-operation-homeland/]

(Analyst Comment: In the past month, the Alt-Right has experienced quite a bit of turmoil over internal relationships with national socialist and neo-Nazi groups. Previously, the centrist Alt-Right view believed that any group pushing white identity should be an ally; however, after mounting complaints about bad optics, the vanguard of the Alt-Right is headed in a new direction. Last month, the Traditionalist Workers Party, a national socialist group that often uses Nazi imagery, was asked to part from the Alt-Right umbrella. It appears that Eli Mosely’s departure may have been associated with the split and the new direction. The Alt-Right in general adopted a new strategy of focusing on white American nationalism, instead of national socialism that many view as toxic to the cause. The old, inclusive strategy that included some Nazi imagery helped paint the movement as neo-Nazi. While the term is popular political parlance for the Alt-Right, typical members aren’t actual neo-Nazis. In rallies since the new direction, we’ve seen more American flags and a more traditional, American nationalist focus.)

Identity Evropa holds event on a college campus in southern California (Initiatives)

Alt-Right group Identity Evropa sponsored an event held on a college campus in Southern California last week, as a test for the local organizer’s abilities. “Frequent, local conferences play an important role in Identity Evropa’s mission. Whereas national and international conferences are great for networking across great distances, events at the local level reinforce group cohesion, encourage locals from the greater Alt-Right community to join Identity Evropa, and offer individuals the chance to improve their organizational skills and oration.” [Source: https://www.identityevropa.com/action-report/a-brighter-future]

Identity Evropa drops banner at Georgia Tech (Initiatives)

For the second time in as many months, Identity Evropa activists dropped a large banner in the Atlanta, Georgia area. The first was on an interstate overpass, and this week they unfurled a banner at the campus of Georgia Tech. The banner read, “America First. End Immigration.” A drone captured the event and video was posted to Twitter. [source: https://twitter.com/IdentityEvropa/status/938717486941290496]

Alt-Right fundraising efforts and tactics (Capabilities/Initiatives)

Prior to the sharing economy, white supremacist groups traditionally raised funds themselves from their supporters, and sometimes from wealthy benefactors. Starting in the mid-2010s, like other groups and projects, they began to migrate to new models of crowdfunding and crowdsourcing. Websites like GoFundMe, Kickstarter, Indiegogo, Patreon, and Fundrazr all cater to individuals and groups soliciting donations for their cause, project, or business.

Starting in mid-2017, many of these websites began banning accounts associated with white supremacy, hate, or violence (to include some Leftist groups, as well). In response, these groups migrated to sites designed to cater to their own bases and interests. Crowdfunding sites like GoyFundMe (GoFundMe) and Hatreon (Patreon) are the Alt-Right and white supremacist response to being shut out of mainstream crowdsourcing.

Popular accounts on Hatreon include:

  1. Andrew Anglin— Daily Stormer— $3824.14 a month from 222 patrons
  2. Radio Nordfront— Podcast— $1728.88 a month from 71 patrons
  3. Identity Evropa— Identity Evropa Defense Fund— $1328.00 a month from 52 patrons
  4. Millenial Woes— YouTube— $1005.09 a month from 79 patrons
  5. Richard Spencer— $962.01 a month from 70 patrons
  6. Greg Johnson— The North American New Right— $673.39 a month from 45 patrons
  7. Jazzhands McFeels— Fash The Nation (podcast)— $653.14 a month from 68 patrons
  8. Andrew Auernheimer— Fascist Polemic— $526.26 a month from 54 patrons
  9. Nordic Resistance Movement— A National Socialist Republic For The Nordic People— $535.64 a month from 32 patrons
  10. Christopher Cantwell— Radical Agenda— $503.42 a month from 43 patrons [SOURCE]

PIR3: What are the new indicators of future politically-related violence?

16 December – San Francisco, CA – “March Against Sanctuary Cities” event ‘re-branded’ to “Justice for Kate Steinle”

16-18 March 2018 – MAGACON 2018

TBA – Richard Spencer speech at the University of Cincinnati

TBA – Richard Spencer speech at the University of Michigan

TBA – Lawsuits still pending to allow Richard Spencer to speak at Penn State, Ohio State, and Michigan State.


PIR4: What is the current threat index score for the Alt-Left movement?

Indicators of Revolutionary Activity

Strong Indications: 7

Weak Indications: 5

No/Negligible Indications: 8

We remain at 12/20 total indicators, and there’s been no change in the last week.

Alt-Left Roll-Up

ME: More protests expected at Susan Collins’ office

MS: President Trump to attend civil rights museum amid protests, boycotts

Walmart faces backlash after selling Antifa sweatshirts online

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar urges athletes to continue political protests

Mike Shelby is a former Intelligence NCO and contractor. He's now the CEO of Forward Observer.

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