Good morning. Here’s your Daily Situational Awareness for Tuesday, 19 October 2021. You can receive this daily briefing by signing up at https://forwardobserver.com/daily-sa
TODAY’S BRIEFING:
- China sends hypersonic warning to U.S.
- Western ‘megadroughts’ worst in over 1,000 years
- Natural gas prices skyrocket, inventories low
- Senate targets illegal mining & gold sales in Latin America
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS
HYPERSONIC: China’s hypersonic missile test in late August is being called “a call to action” by lawmakers. “If we stick to our current complacent course — or place our hopes in bankrupt buzzwords like ‘integrated deterrence’ — we will lose the New Cold War with Communist China within the decade,” Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-WI) said. The missile test sent a hypersonic glide vehicle into low earth orbit from China, traveling around Antarctica before ultimately missing its destination by 40km. The southern path is significant as the majority of U.S. missile defense systems are in Alaska, historically focused on countering Soviet strikes. In a statement, Ranking Member of the House Armed Services Committee Rep. Mike Rogers (R-AL) said, “It’s time for President Biden to step up to the plate…and take all necessary steps to break the Chinese civil-military fusion complex.” (Analyst Comment: The Biden administration’s Nuclear Posture Review began in June and will not be complete until mid-2022. Congressional hurdles and partisan bickering prevented modernization of many missile defense programs. China demonstrated its ability to defeat U.S. homeland defense systems, sending a clear message to Washington. This is significant because China can circumvent U.S. homeland missile defense with little-to-no advanced warning, echoing earlier Pentagon assessments that the U.S. is “in play” for near-peer conflicts. – D.M.)
DROUGHT: The Senate Subcommittee on Water and Power found that 90% of the Western U.S. is currently experiencing “some degree of moderate to severe drought.” According to some climate scientists, which called the current time period a “megadrought,” tree ring and soil data show that “we are experiencing the worst drought in 1,200 years, having surpassed the last longest drought which occurred in the late 1,500s.” Arizona stands to lose up to 18% of its water allocation from the Colorado River starting in January. Lake Mead, behind Hoover Dam, and Lake Powell are both at 35 and 30% capacities. (AC: Committee members are exploring options for increases to funding that goes towards research in water conservation; particularly in farming applications. The Department of the Interior has already provided funding to projects in the West that amount to $100 million. -T.W.)
GAS: Natural gas prices are expected to continue rising until the middle of 2022. The Energy Information Agency (EIA) said natural gas should peak at $5.67 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) between October and March. Liquified natural gas (LNG) demand from Europe increased beyond pipeline exports for the first time, contributing to lower U.S. inventories and sustained higher prices for domestic consumers. (AC: Market pressures and policy changes continue to raise energy prices for consumers. The EIA expects increased domestic production will lower prices in 2022, however, proposed methane taxes will likely offset the supply increase for natural gas customers at $1800 per ton. The increased energy costs will contribute to rising prices for many consumer goods which use natural gas for electricity and manufacturing processes. – D.M.)
MINING: Republican Senators Cruz (R-TX), Tillis (R-NC), and Rubio (R-FL) introduced a bill to “disrupt illicit fold mining and trafficking of other precious metals.” The senators contend the illegal mining in Latin America funds terrorists and rogue regimes. Sen. Cruz said, “The porous border between Venezuela and Colombia facilitates the smuggling of illegal gold with ties to Marxist guerrilla groups like the National Liberation Army (ELN) and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC).” Additionally, the senators believe gold sales between Venezuela and Iran are providing funds for terrorism around the Middle East. (AC: There is an increased focus by U.S. lawmakers and Defense officials on rare earth minerals and control of their supply chains. As the U.S. seeks to marginalize Iran and Venezuela’s alleged partnership, Chinese mineral extractors working alongside cartels are the unspoken secondary target. The bill is likely to receive bipartisan support as it would potentially improve U.S. mining interests and market access by sanctioning suspected illicit miners. -D.M.).
HAZARDS WARNING
HURRICANE SEASON: Nothing significant to report.
In today’s Early Warning, Mike takes a look at a new trend of resistance on the Right. Upgrade your Situational Awareness to Early Warning here: https://forwardobserver.com/subscribe