Good morning. Here’s your Daily SITREP for Thursday, 30 November 2023.
Forward Observer’s Cyber Monday deals are live. Next year is going to be turbulent. Protests, riots, civil unrest, supply chains, markets, elections — you name it, it’s going to get disrupted. You don’t have to go it alone in 2024. The Early Warning intel team keeps you informed on what matters, when you need to know it. Put us on your team with a new Early Warning membership.
- (1) FEDS INVESTIGATE IRAN CYBER ATTACKS ON U.S. UTILITIES: According to officials familiar with the investigation, federal agencies are investigating cyber attacks against multiple water facilities across the country that use Israeli-made Unitronics industrial control systems they suspect were conducted by Iran-linked groups.
- The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) released an advisory that it was “responding to active exploitation” of Unitronics industrial control devices at water and wastewater facilities but did not mention the origin of the attacks.
- Why It Matters: Water purification and wastewater processing facilities in the U.S. remain vulnerable to both cyber and physical sabotage. Damaging or destroying water utilities not only cuts off drinking water for population centers but sabotage of wastewater facilities could be used to indirectly spread disease by mixing wastewater and drinking water or destroying wastewater facilities. – R.C.
- (2) NEW YORK CHRISTMAS TREE RIOT A PREVIEW OF 2024: The New York Police Department arrested several pro-Palestine protestors after police and demonstrators clashed a few blocks away from the Rockefeller Center Christmas Tree lighting.
- NYPD counterterrorism officials warned that pro-Palestine demonstrators would attempt to disrupt the event after they disrupted the Macy Thanksgiving parade last week.
- Why It Matters: The pro-Palestine demonstrations disrupting public events are likely a preview of political unrest in 2024. According to polling, support for Palestine is higher among younger leftists and liberals, who are the prime demographic for political action. – R.C.
- (3) TAIWAN: CHINESE LEADERS TOO “OVERWHELMED” FOR INVASION: In a recent interview, Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen said that China is too “overwhelmed” with economic problems to launch an invasion of Taiwan.
- “Well, I think the Chinese leadership at this juncture is overwhelmed by its internal challenges… Largely because the internal economic and financial as well as political challenges, but also, the international community has made it loud and clear that war is not an option, and peace and stability serves everybody’s interests,” Tsai said.
- Tsai added that China is “probably not particularly successful in their effort of trying to influence the election here,” speaking on China’s attempts to influence the January 2024 elections.
- “Taiwan independence means war,” said an official from China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, in direct response to the Tsai’s comments.
- Why It Matters: We have significant doubts that China would be able to launch a successful military invasion of Taiwan right now. However, success for the pro-independence Democratic People’s Party in January 2024 elections could accelerate a decision to launch a blockade. – M.S.
- (4) KISHIDA WORKS TO CHANGE ARMS EXPORT RULES: Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is working on legislation to loosen export restrictions on Japanese-made arms and ammunition.
- Japan is constitutionally forbidden from exporting weapons or components except to the United States per its post-WW2 constitution.
- Countries at war, such as Ukraine and Israel, would still be barred from receiving Japanese weapons.
- Why It Matters: Kishida is likely doing this to further enhance Japan’s relationship with the Philippines and Vietnam, which are already trying to buy Japanese weapons. These two bilateral relationships are built on countering China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea and generally containing China. Japan and the Philippines have mutual defense treaties with the U.S. As more Southeast Asian Nations move toward this goal, the likelihood of accidental escalation decreases since China may potentially have to deal with six Pacific nations and the U.S. in a war. – J.V.
Forward Observer’s Cyber Monday deals are live. Next year is going to be turbulent. Protests, riots, civil unrest, supply chains, markets, elections — you name it, it’s going to get disrupted. You don’t have to go it alone in 2024. The Early Warning intel team keeps you informed on what matters, when you need to know it. Put us on your team with a new Early Warning membership.