DailySA: Belarus, Russia edge closer to significant escalation – Forward Observer

DailySA: Belarus, Russia edge closer to significant escalation

Good morning. Here’s your Daily Situational Awareness for Wednesday, 19 October 2022.

BELARUS RESERVES RIGHT FOR PREEMPTIVE SELF-DEFENSE: Belarusian defense officials decided during a partly published briefing that the country reserves the right to use a “preemptive strategic measure complex” to “prevent an attack or neutralize an internal armed conflict.” Belarusian officials say these measures are necessary to protect against threats, including the “growing Polish military potential” and the establishment of “offensive groups” by NATO Baltic states for use against Russia and Belarus. As well as a plot discovered by Belarusian security officials for Ukraine militants to capture a central district in the county to” prepare a foothold for a further offensive operation.” Citing these threats, Belarusian Defense Ministry official, Valery Revenko, said Belarus will “protect its national interests with the use of all available means.”

LAVROV: “NO POINT” IN MAINTAINING DIPLOMATIC PRESENCE IN WEST: In a speech to college graduates entering Russia’s diplomatic service, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said, “there is neither point nor desire” to maintain a diplomatic presence in the west. Citing poor conditions and “threats of physical attack,” the minister announced a “geographical reorientation” of Russia’s diplomatic activities. Citing efforts by European and NATO countries to politically and economically isolate Russia, Lavrov said there is “no work there,” indicating the restructuring of Russian diplomatic efforts would likely pivot away from Europe. 

U.K. REBELLION GROWS, PRIME MINISTER VOWS TO CARRY ON: British Prime Minister Liz Truss apologized for her failed economic agenda and warned of tough times ahead. Truss scrapped her plan and fired her finance minister after a second bond market sell-off threatened U.K. pension funds that had exposure to government bonds. Her new finance minister reversed the economic plan, which rallied markets. Truss said she will fight to hold onto her position but is facing significant resistance from her own conservative party, which is openly discussing replacing her in the coming weeks. A new YouGov poll showed more than half the Conservative Party members that backed her said she should resign.

U.S., MEXICO SEEK UN SUPPORT FOR HAITI SECURITY DEPLOYMENT: U.S. and Mexican officials announced they intend to seek support from the United Nations in creating a security mission to restore order in Haiti. U.S. representative to the UN, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, introduced a proposal for a resolution to support a “carefully scoped non-U.N. mission led by a partner state” with sufficient experience to ensure success. Chinese representatives questioned the proposal noting Haitian opposition to foreign intervention saying such a mission could “face resistance or even trigger violent confrontation from the population.” On Monday, The Bahamas announced it would support a peacekeeping force with its military personnel if asked by the U.N. or the Caribbean Community (Caricom).

In today’s Early Warning, Mike takes a look at the 2022 Red Wave and what’s ahead for the GOP House majority, plus the team discusses the signs of worsening domestic disruption. Get access to our full report here: https://forwardobserver.com/subscribe

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