Good morning. Here’s your Daily Situational Awareness for Monday, 03 October 2022.
U.S., PHILIPPINES CONDUCT OPERATIONAL PLANNING FOR WAR WITH CHINA: Top defense chiefs from the U.S. and Philippines personally joined in detailed war planning at the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command in Hawaii last week. The planning session came a week after Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos met with U.S. President Joe Biden on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York. This is the first major high-level U.S.-Philippine coordination in planning to counter Chinese military operations in the South China Sea. The previous Philippine President, Rodrigo Duterte, was notoriously anti-American and kept close relations with China.
RUSSIAN NUCLEAR BOMBERS DEPLOYED TO MURMANSK: Recently released satellite imagery from Israeli Intelligence firm ImageSat confirmed the unusual presence of a squadron of Russian nuclear bombers at the Olenya Airbase in the Murmansk region bordering Scandinavia. Imagery revealed that 3 TU-95 heavy bombers and 4 TU-160 strategic bombers had been forward deployed to the region since late august with an increase in forces following the Nord Stream pipeline incidents. Analysts believe the bombers are part of the 121st Heavy Bomber Aviation Regiment based at Russia’s Engles Airbase that has been participating in combat missions in Ukraine.
MEXICAN GOV HIT WITH CYBER ATTACK: Mexican Government officials announced the country suffered a major data breach as a result of a cyberattack on the Mexican military’s IT network. The attack stole more than six terabytes of data, including information on criminal figures, communications transcripts, and details of an operation monitoring U.S. ambassador to Mexico, Ken Salazar. President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) was also targeted in the attack, which compromised his private health records. The attack was attributed to the Guacamaya hacker group, which has conducted a series of attacks on Latin American security services and is thought to be of foreign origin. Guacamaya claimed the Mexican military is guilty of armed criminal violence and supporting “extractive companies from the Global North.”
CHINA STRUGGLING AS DOLLAR STEAMROLLS YUAN: Chinese authorities are speed running the list of monetary policy measures available to save its currency, the yuan, from a steep and continuing slide. The yuan slid 7% from mid-August to last week. Late last week, China’s central bank ordered all state-owned banks to sell dollars in an effort to stop currency investors from shorting the yuan. The yuan continues to slide and is now sitting at 7.12 to the dollar. Analysts are seeing continued volatility in the yuan in the one-month yuan options, which have doubled in the past month.
In today’s Early Warning, the team explores Congress’ latest attempt to deter Chinese threats. For in-depth analysis and the latest roll-up of geopolitical events, access the Early Warning here: https://forwardobserver.com/subscribe/