Good morning. Here’s your Daily Situational Awareness for Wednesday, 06 April 2022. You can receive this daily briefing by signing up at https://forwardobserver.com/daily-sa
TODAY’S BRIEFING:
- Ukrainians arrive in Tijuana seeking U.S. entry
- Biden, DOJ to announce new actions on Russia
- US officials: Putin positioning for 09 May victory in Ukraine
- North Korea warns of nuclear war
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- Military/Defense
- Geopolitics
- National Security
- Economic
- Far Left Activity Rollup & Outlook
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS
UKRAINIANS ARRIVE IN TIJUANA SEEKING U.S. ENTRY: The director of migrant affairs in Tijuana, Mexico said about 1,500 Ukrainians are waiting in his city for entry to the U.S. Activists based in California blame slow U.S. processing on the buildup of Ukrainians, with hundreds more expected on flights in the coming days. (AC: While these refugee or asylum seekers are waiting for the legal process to work itself out, there is no estimate on the number crossing illegally. One border sector reported apprehensions of individuals from 106 different countries. Standard porous border caveats apply. – D.M.)
BIDEN, DOJ TO ANNOUNCE NEW ACTIONS ON RUSSIA: The Biden administration is readying additional sanctions against Alfa Bank, a major private lender in Russia, which could be announced today. The Department of Justice is also set to announce new action to “disrupt and prosecute criminal Russian activity.” Additionally, the Internal Revenue Service announced that they had stopped an information exchange with Russia’s Federal Taxation Service in efforts to disrupt Russia’s ability to tax citizens living abroad. (AC: Over the past month, Russian leaders have made numerous criticisms characterizing US actions as being economic warfare. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov recently accused the US of engaging in “hybrid warfare” to defeat Russia. Continued sanctions and law enforcement action against the Russian government could raise the risk of a cyber attack, especially with no Ukrainian peace deal in sight. – M.S.)
PUTIN REPOSITIONING FOR 09 MAY VICTORY IN UKRAINE: U.S. officials believe Russia’s withdrawals west of the Dnieper River are a reconsolidation effort. Russia remains unable to take over major cities across most of Ukraine and could use the next month to advance from Luhansk and Donetsk. Potential targets include cities up to the Dnieper River and the coastal city of Odessa. According to unnamed sources reported in mainstream media, U.S. officials believe that Russian President Vladimir Putin could use 09 May to claim victory in Ukraine, as the date is a historical “victory day” for Russia. – D.M.
NORTH KOREA WARNS OF NUCLEAR WAR: North Korea recently lashed out at its southern neighbor South Korea after comments made by the South Korean defense minister, which raised the possibility of preemptive military strikes against its northern adversary. Kim Yo-jong, sister to North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, called the South Korean defense minister a “scum-like guy” for saying the South could attack preemptively if it determined the North was intending to launch a nuclear strike. This inter-peninsular drama followed North Korea’s latest flurry of missile tests, including its first intercontinental ballistic missile in four years. (AC: The latest rhetoric between the two neighboring countries is mostly performative and intended for domestic audiences. It is unlikely the North would launch any major attack on South Korea unless major conflict broke out between the U.S. and China. – M.M.)
This week’s High Side briefings:
Wednesday: Evolving drug trade in North America
Thursday: Economic Early Warning
Friday: Early Warning Roundtable
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