Good morning! Mike here from Forward Observer, and here’s what’s on my radar…
Over the past couple months, I’ve seen some folks on social media warn that January 2025 is the “big one”.
That’s the time, according to them, that everyone should be preparing for.
I don’t disagree that January 2025 could be catastrophic (election fallout, for instance), but it overlooks some key dates in 2024 that could bring disruption and potential catastrophes of their own.
In short, don’t sleep on 2024 while you’re counting on 2025.
I’ll list a few key dates on our Early Warning calendar below.
1. The Taiwan general election is scheduled for 13 January 2024.
China is both openly and covertly influencing Taiwanese elections, and could begin a blockade as soon as next spring if the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) takes unexpected steps to assert Taiwanese independence.
At minimum, we’d likely see 2020 levels of trade disruption following a blockade, while Citadel hedge fund manager Ken Griffin warned of Great Depression-like economic effects due to chip shortages. (This is not the most likely scenario, but it’s one we’re watching.)
2. The Trump campaign could reprise the national “March 4 Trump” rallies that originally took place on 04 March 2017.
Trump is facing at least three new trials next year. The Florida trial is on hold until May, the Georgia trial is expected to begin in August, and the D.C. trial is currently scheduled to begin on… you guessed it: 04 March 2024. (The Trump team is arguing for a halt to the case, pending an appeal, so this date could change.)
The Trump campaign could kick off a series of March 4 Trump rallies, which would again pit Far Left protestors and militants against Trump supporters.
At a minimum, we’re likely looking at violent confrontations reminiscent of the 2016 Trump campaign.
This, of course, doesn’t preclude another trigger event in the spring or summer that ignites catastrophic national riots like we saw in 2020.
3. A Trump nomination in July will re-ignite urgency among the Far Left.
This is one event you can put on your calendars and count on renewing a sense of urgency among Far Left groups.
The Republican National Convention is scheduled for 15-18 July in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. We should at minimum see a major protest (just like 2016 and 2020) against Trump’s expected nomination.
There are two other notable factors here.
First, the city is a short drive from Chicago and Minneapolis-St. Paul, two hot beds of Far Left organizing, which should bring out the crowds.
And second, we should expect agitators and activists to again travel from out of state to disrupt the convention.
In 2021, for instance, antifa traveling from Washington and Oregon joined the Brooklyn Center riots in Minneapolis. Police made hundreds of arrests through nine nights of protests and riots.
There are well-established Far Left networks across the region, and we should see a regional mobilization for the convention.
These are just three dates to watch on our calendar.
Our Early Warning team tracks upcoming protests and direct action demonstrations to keep members aware of future disruption. What’s going on in your area?
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Until next time, be well and stay out front.
Always Out Front,
Mike Shelby
Founder and CEO, Forward Observer