Good morning. Here’s your Early Warning for Wednesday, 15 September 2021.
TODAY’S BRIEFING:
- Milley undermined Trump following election
- Blackrock bullish on cryptos
- 23 States reject HR4 voting act
- Supply chain poses challenge in Western wildfires
- In Focus: Congress unprepared for Great Power Competition
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS
MILLEY: Excerpts from an upcoming book by Bob Woodward claim the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Mark Milley, called Chinese military officials following the Capitol protest to assure them of U.S. stability. Further meetings between House Speaker Pelosi and Gen. Milley concerned former President Trump’s access to nuclear launch codes and potential for kicking off a war to preserve power. The former president denied the allegations, pointing to previous factual errors with the author’s work. In a statement to President Biden, Sen. Rubio (R-FL) said, “It is a dangerous precedent that could be asserted at any point in the future by General Milley or others. It threatens to tear apart our nation’s longstanding principle of civilian control of the military.” (Analyst Comment: Bipartisan calls for Gen. Milley’s resignation began almost immediately as the story broke. If the story is to be believed, it is a significant indicator of a worsening intra-elite conflict. The emboldening of the Chinese military in the wake of Gen. Milley’s calls are clear as the communists view the U.S. as unable to respond without substantial in-fighting or clarity on who is in charge. – D.M.)
CRYPTO: BlackRock’s chief investment officer for global fixed income, Rick Rieder, is confident that crypto “could have some real upside. My sense is there are more buyers than sellers. It’s an asset class that I think is durable.” He is bullish on crypto not because of the utility of the tokens themselves, but the blockchain technology they are built on. (AC: There have been a high number of critiques on the cryptocurrency market in the past weeks as regulation for the asset class looms. The SEC is on track to impose new regulations for crypto markets that will likely drive institutional adoption. -T.W.)
VOTING: Twenty-three states are preparing lawsuits to combat the provisions of the John Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act. The main concerns are preclearance provisions with a 25-year window, easily-exploitable vote denial claims processes, and making Congress and the Justice Department the “czars” of every state or national election. The letter to Congressional leadership said, “H.R. 4 brands such laws discriminatory while lacking any actual evidence to back up such claims. The House of Representatives simply relied on the testimony of 35 partisan witnesses…a study the National Bureau of Economic Research conducted between 2008-2018 found that strict voter ID laws have had ‘no negative effect on registration or turnout, overall or for any specific group defined by race, gender, age or party affiliation.’” (AC: This is one of two legal battles Texas has with the federal government, the other being SB8. Both instances place the rights of states’ to govern themselves and have the support of attorneys general from mostly red states. – D.M.)
WILDFIRES: Firefighters mobilized by the U.S. Forest Service to fight the Caldor fire are facing logistics and resourcing challenges. “Typically we can mobilize people, resources, engines and helicopters within 24 to 48 hours. What we’re finding this year with the supply chain challenges we’re facing, it’s more like 72 hours,” one official said. Standard sustainment plans are “broken”, often requiring firefighters to manage their own supply deliveries and remove personnel from battling the blaze. Shortages of fire hoses required invocation of the Defense Production Act to reopen facilities in Oklahoma. (AC: Around 44,000 wildfires have burned nearly 5,300,000 acres so far this year. The Biden administration is blaming climate change for the increase in wildfires and many Western states are extending doubt regulations through the winter. )
HAZARDS WARNING
HURRICANE SEASON: Tropical Depression Nicholas continues moving slowly across the Gulf Coast of Texas and Louisiana. Life-threatening flash flooding is possible along the Central Gulf Coast for the next couple of days. According to the National Hurricane Center tornadoes are possible today in southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southwest Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle. The mid-Atlantic area of low pressure is expected to consolidate over the next 48 hours, but without consolidation the storms will bring high surf to the Eastern Seaboard.
InFocus: Congress unprepared for Great Power Competition
The Congressional Research Service issued a comprehensive report to members of Congress about Chinese and Russian activities in the Great Power Competition. The report says action is required to transition our nation from counterterrorism and Middle East operations to a near-peer conflict footing. From organizational change in the Defense Department to allied capabilities in multiple theaters, the report emphasizes an orientation to mitigate gray-zone tactics while preparing for “extended-length large-scale conflict.”
The Biden administration’s Interim National Security Strategy follows Presidents’ Obama and Trump assessment of China in particular. The guidance said, “(China) is the only competitor potentially capable of combining its economic, diplomatic, military, and technological power to mount a sustained challenge to a stable and open international system. Russia remains determined to enhance its global influence and play a disruptive role on the world stage.” In a notable departure from the Trump administration, Biden’s guidance focuses on investments in domestic issues and “bolstering and defending our unparalleled network of allies.” This becomes a risky venture as the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan severely degraded U.S.-European relations, in particular. The Defense Department’s assessment of China notes the communists remain our top global military threat in large-scale kinetic operations and increasingly in gray zone activities.
Congress is tasked with ensuring the Defense Department can expand the sourcing and numbers of personnel killed or wounded, replace destroyed weapon systems, repair battle-damaged vehicles, replace satellites and support assets, and manufacture spare parts. The purview of these oversight and funding responsibilities is across multiple committees in the House and Senate. Unfortunately, the dozens of hours of Congressional testimony often find partisan bickering taking center stage over properly funding and resourcing Defense programs. Ongoing debates over legacy weapons systems like the Minuteman and Patriot missile systems stymie modernization efforts, while politicians acknowledge Great Power Competition as a general concept.
The report questions the U.S. ability to respond and develop strategies for hybrid warfare and gray-zone tactics as malign actors continue to outmaneuver Western nations in asymmetric operations. The information operations and hybrid-warfare in Ukraine are notable issues that Congress and the Defense community continue to struggle to address. Further concerns over China’s “salami-slicing” naval tactics in the South and East China Seas highlight the U.S. lack of attention on vessel survivability and combat effectiveness. The indictment of U.S. strategy, or lack thereof, with regard to addressing Chinese and Russian unilateral and joint efforts highlights the ineffectiveness of the legislature in conducting their oversight responsibilities. Further examination of U.S. Defense strategies in Afghanistan and Syria indicates many politicians continue to take the word of military officials over an objective assessment of facts. This places the U.S. at a continued strategic disadvantage as Defense officials’ assessments do not always align with reality, providing more opportunity for recalcitrant politicians to resist addressing the real threat of Chinese and Russian military action in multiple theaters of war.
— END REPORT
M.S. indicates analyst commentary from Mike Shelby
D.M. indicates analyst commentary from Dustin Mascorro
T.W. indicates analyst commentary from Troy Watson