Good morning. Here’s your Early Warning for Tuesday, 03 August 2021.
TODAY’S BRIEFING:
- Situational Awareness
- DOJ forms election task force
- CDC quietly extends deportation rules
- New lockdowns in Asia looming
- Navy sees competition in Arctic
- Yellen puts Congress on notice
- National Security Council expands
- In Focus: What happens when the rules collapse?
- Far Left Activity Rollup & Outlook
- Upcoming Event Calendar
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS
ELECTIONS: The Department of Justice announced a new task force designed to protect election workers from violence. The task force will combine elements from the FBI, Department of Homeland Security, and the National Security Division of the Justice Department. Deputy Attorney General Lisa Monaco said, “We will promptly and vigorously prosecute offenders to protect the rights of American voters… to send the unmistakable message that such conduct will not be tolerated.” According to surveys of election workers, 1 in 6 reportedly received threats of violence and 1 in 3 “feel unsafe because of their job.” (Analyst Comment: Existing federal law covers election workers and threats of violence against them. No statistics were available from the DOJ for physical attacks against election workers, indicating the politicization of election workers before the 2022 midterms. A return to mail-in balloting and extended voting periods will likely lead to declining faith in elections. See today’s InFocus for more analysis. – D.M.)
BORDER: The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and Department of Homeland Security (DHS) quietly announced an extension to deportations under public health measures. While more than a million people are estimated to have already crossed the southern border, DHS is now expected to increase deportations. (AC: This is tacit acknowledgment by the Biden administration the influx of potentially sick people to the U.S. is having a negative impact on public health, particularly as federal authorities surreptitiously relocated people around the country for months. – D.M.)
EXPORTS: The Delta variant is spreading across China, limiting mobility for truckers bringing goods to port. As a result, exports from China are at risk of a June-style backlog which sent shockwaves through consumer and manufacturing markets. The spread of cases and lockdowns across Southeast Asia pushed Indonesian, Malaysian, and Vietnamese manufacturing indices deep into contraction territory. “[For Vietnam] footwear, furniture, and apparel really stand out as vulnerable commodities,” said Michigan State logistics professor Jason Miller.
NAVY: The Navy’s 2nd Fleet Commander, Vice Admiral Andrew “Woody” Lewis said that expects Russia will increase cooperation with the Chinese in the Arctic region, as Russia develops its Arctic facilities. (AC: The U.S. is being outmaneuvered by China, which is employing direct-investment, research, and security cooperation agreements to influence Canada, Russia, Finland, Sweden and Norway. The international consensus is China has no right to the Arctic, which they largely refuse to acknowledge. – D.M.)
TREASURY: In a letter to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen outlined several emergency provisions the Treasury is taking as the U.S. reached its statutory debt limit. On Saturday, the Treasury suspended the sale of State and Local Government Series securities “until further notice”. The Civil and Postal retiree health funds are being restricted to beneficiary pay only and a “debt issuance suspension period” through at least September as the funds are liquidating investments to meet funding requirements. Secretary Yellen also said that Thrift Savings Fund investments will be suspended until the debt limit is addressed, and continues to urge Congress to take action. (AC: Congress is in recess for the majority of August and significant portions of September, indicating there will be pressure on DC to “pass something”. The last-minute approach is likely to foment Far Left labor protests. – D.M.)
NATSEC COUNCIL: The National Security Council (NSC) staff is expanding by 20%. Six new directorates within the council were approved to address growing threats from China and Russia, the cyber environment, countering domestic extremism, pandemics, and emerging technologies. The new staffing initiatives are being celebrated by unnamed NSC members who blame a degraded security environment on former President Trump’s reductions. (AC: The staff is around the same size as during the Obama administration, but an increased focus on domestic matters is a troubling development. Given the overwhelming presence of foreign influence operations, many NSC initiatives run the risk of being influenced by a corrupt information environment. – D.M.)
HAZARDS WARNING
HURRICANE SEASON: Nothing significant to report.
InFocus: What happens when the rules collapse?
Last week, a poll from George Washington University found that 55% of Republicans agreed that the use of force may be required to protect the “traditional American way of life.” Overall, roughly a third of respondents said that they agreed or strongly agreed with the statement. On another question, 47% of Republicans agreed that a “time will come when patriotic Americans have to take the law into their own hands.” Republicans also reported less trust in state election officials than Democrats, 44% to 76%, respectively. Some 41% of all respondents said that they are “not too confident” or “not at all confident” in the 2022 elections. As with all polling data, I express some level of skepticism, although I do agree that these results are generally true, if not accurate.
We’ve now had three “illegitimate” presidents this century. Back in 2000, George W. Bush was accused of stealing the “hanging chad” election. More recently, the Left largely saw Trump as illegitimate, and the Right largely sees Biden as illegitimate. Over the weekend, I started to wonder how many more illegitimate presidents can the U.S. have without the system collapsing? How many election cycles can the U.S. have until another perceived legitimate president is elected and restores the perception of free and fair elections? Which will come first?
Former Trump National Security Council member Joshua Steinman might call this “game-theoretic defection.” It’s what happens when one side starts bending or breaking the rules, and disincentivizes other players to follow the rules. In response to shoplifting in California, where it’s being effectively decriminalized, and hence normalized, Steinman writes, “When it starts to happen, players in the game are realizing the rules are breaking down. And the game is ending.”
From 2016 to 2020, Americans were inundated with accusations that Trump was “removing the long-established guardrails” of American political and diplomatic history. He was, his accusers said, “ending democracy as we know it.” Whether or not that was true, Biden is also bending those guardrails, as Obama did. Mass immigration and a refusal to secure the border, followed by a pathway to citizenship, means remaking the electorate. This is not in the realm of competing ideas, it’s changing the rules of the game.
Long time readers of Early Warning will not be surprised to read that I think the American Empire is ending. Perhaps the biggest driver is the erosion of social cohesion. In his book Historical Dynamics, Professor Peter Turchin points out that cultural uniformity is the basis for social cohesion. When that uniformity is disrupted, cohesion begins to break down, and Turchin’s study of history shows that this is one way that civilizations, states, and empires collapse.
Prior to 2020, the economy and the overall legitimacy of government were perhaps the only two sectors of American society that were still broadly supported. They were probably the center of gravity — the centripetal force keeping all aspects of society together. We could disagree on just about anything, but the economy was strong and we mostly still supported the social contract.
We’ve entered a decade where the Congressional Budget Office expects persistently weak economic growth. The period of 2026-2031 is expected to have 1.6% annualized growth, which will have deleterious political and social effects. This is not to mention another recession or financial crisis, which historically happens every 5-6 years. We’ll also have two more presidential elections this decade. If they are anywhere near as suspect as 2016 and 2020, then we’re in for some real problems. I’m not at all optimistic that 2024 or 2028 will be clean, respected, and perceived as legitimate by a majority of Americans. If this happens, Americans might simply stop playing the game, likely leading to a resurgence of independence movements to break away from D.C. I do think the “American experiment” could end this decade. – M.S.
LOW INTENSITY CONFLICT INTSUM
Far Left Activity Rollup & Outlook
Analyst Commentary: Far Left activists organized by the Poor People’s Campaign assembled in Washington, D.C. yesterday in substantial numbers. They demanded Congress pass a $15 an hour minimum wage, end the filibuster, and pass the For The People Act. The event was supported by open socialists from the Party for Socialism & Liberation, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), and Far Left activists Linda Sarsour. At the protest, Sarsour claimed that the Far Left “resistance” has returned and added, “We’re still in the same situation we’ve been without Trump.” Similar protests pressuring the federal government to adopt more Far Left policies are likely moving into late summer and fall as popular support continues to fall for the Biden administration.
Black Lives Matter (BLM) activists are focused on a series of anti-law enforcement rallies in Texas today. The “Safety & Liberation” rallies are being organized in Austin, San Marcos, and Houston to build popular support for the abolition of police and prisons. In addition, Far Left environmental activists are organizing multiple protests in Oregon, Colorado, and Minnesota tomorrow. Environmentalists in Minneapolis, Minnesota are planning to occupy and shut down an interstate overpass downtown. Activists will likely continue to organize similar protests to demand an end to highway and pipeline construction projects. – M.B.
PACIFIC
FUTURE
Portland, Oregon
Size: TBD
Activity: Far Left environmental activists with the Sunrise Movement are organizing a protest to demand “climate justice” and for the Oregon Department of Transportation (ODOT) to halt all new road construction.
Location: ODOT (123 NW Flanders St)
Time: 10AM; Wednesday, 04 AUG
MOUNTAIN
FUTURE
Boulder, Colorado
Size: TBD
Activity: Far Left environmental activists with the Collective for Another World and 350 Colorado are organizing a “Stop Line 3” protest
Location: Pearl St Mall (1942 Broadway)
Time: 7PM; Wednesday, 04 AUG
CENTRAL
FUTURE
Austin, Texas
Size: TBD
Activity: BLM activists are organizing a “Safety & Liberation” rally to promote “a world beyond police or prisons.”
Location: Space 12 Community Center (3121 E 12th St)
Time: 6PM; Tuesday, 03 AUG
San Marcos, Texas
Size: TBD
Activity: BLM activists are organizing a “Safety & Liberation” rally to promote “a world beyond police or prisons.” Democratic Socialists of America will also be providing a brake light clinic.
Location: Quinta Caporales Meat Market (1105 TX-123)
Time: 730PM; Tuesday, 03 AUG
Houston, Texas
Size: TBD
Activity: BLM activists are organizing a “Safety & Liberation” rally to promote “equity and power” without police or prisons.
Location: 4407 New Orleans St
Time: 6PM; Tuesday, 03 AUG
Minneapolis, Minnesota
Size: TBD (approximately 200+ are expected)
Activity: Far Left environmental activists with the Climate Justice Committee are organizing a “Stop Line 3” protest. Organizers plan to occupy an interstate overpass downtown and demand the Biden administration order a halt to pipeline construction.
Location: S Washington Ave, I-35W overpass
Time: 530; Wednesday, 04 AUG
Chicago, Illinois
Size: TBD
Activity: BLM activists are organizing a “Safety & Liberation” rally to demand a world “free of racialized police terror.”
Location: 2226 E 71st St
Time: 6PM; Wednesday, 04 AUG
EAST
Washington, D.C.
Size: Approximately 1,000 on foot
Activity: Far Left activists with the Poor People’s Campaign and the Party for Socialism & Liberation protested and demanded a $15 an hour minimum wage, ending the filibuster, and passing the For The People act. U.S. Capitol Police arrested over 200 protesters after they refused to allow traffic through on Constitution Avenue. Far Left activist Linda Sarsour joined the protest and claimed that “the resistance is back.” Sarsour added, “We’re still in the same situation we’ve been without Trump.”
Location: U.S. Capitol, Washington Union Station
Time: Monday, 02 AUG
FUTURE
Grand, Rapids, Michigan
Size: TBD
Activity: BLM activists are organizing a rally “to support the Black Lives Matter movement and to build partnerships in the community with others who are seeking racial justice and equity.”
Location: Rosa Parks Circle (135 Monroe Center St NW)
Time: 1115AM; Wednesday, 04 AUG
Upcoming Event Calendar
18 August: Defend the Forest National Day of Action (Defend Atlanta Forest (multiple cities)
21 August: National Shut ‘Em Down Demonstrations (prison/ICE abolition) (multiple cities)
15 October: General Strike (labor unions) (multiple cities)
— END REPORT
M.S. indicates analyst commentary from Mike Shelby
M.B. indicates analyst commentary from Max Baer
D.M. indicates analyst commentary from Dustin Mascorro