Global SITREP for Friday, 10 May 2024 – Forward Observer

Global SITREP for Friday, 10 May 2024

Good morning, and welcome to the Global Situation Report for Friday, 10 May 2024.

  1. JAPAN TO PROVOKE CHINA ON TAIWAN BEFORE TRILATERAL SUMMIT: Japan announced it is sending a 30-man delegation, the largest they’ve ever sent, to Taiwan’s presidential inauguration on 20 May.
  • The delegation intends to meet the incoming president, vice president, and speaker, but the government has not finalized the arrangement.
  • Citing a 2006 declaration by former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe that “A contingency for Taiwan is a contingency for Japan,” China’s foreign ministry is already declaring this to be a move toward an independence declaration with foreign support.
  • Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen also awarded the Order of the Brilliant Star yesterday to China’s most recent Ambassador from Japan, Hideo Tarumi, for his contributions to Taiwan’s development as a nation.

Why It Matters: Japan is sending a message to Taiwan and China that they recognize Taiwan as already independent. This is likely to undermine the China-Japan-South Korea Head of State summit, which has not been held for five years and is planned for 26 May in South Korea. Additionally, the Chinese Coast Guard could be ordered to be more aggressive on their 365-day patrol around the Senkakus this year. – J.V.

  • Global Rollup
    • Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orban denied the overcapacity narrative and said that China’s development is an opportunity for Europe, not a risk. China and Hungary also upgraded their partnership to an “All-weather comprehensive strategic partnership for the new era.”
    • China handed over the Chang’e 6 mission cube satellite data from the 03 May launch to Pakistan at an official ceremony in Beijing earlier this morning. (Pakistan contributed to the Chang’e 6’s development. This exchange is likely intended to further develop the Pakistani space program to compete with India’s burgeoning space program. – J.V.)
    • The Philippine National Security Council is calling for the Department of Foreign Affairs to expel Chinese diplomats over a supposed phone call between the Chinese Embassy and Philippine officials on China’s “new model” for the Spratly Islands.

THAT’S A WRAP: This does it for today’s edition. Thank you for reading. If you know folks who would also like to receive this email, would you please forward it to them? We appreciate you spreading the word. – M.S.

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