Good morning, and welcome to the Global Situation Report for Friday, 16 February 2024.
- USN CENTCOM: IRGC TARGETING SHIPS ALONGSIDE HOUTHIS: Vice Admiral Brad Cooper, U.S. Naval Forces Central Command, said in an interview yesterday that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps has members on the ground with the Houthis helping them to target ships in the Red Sea.
- “The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps is inside Yemen, and they are serving side-by-side with the Houthis, advising them and providing targeting information.” Cooper added, “[countering this] will obviously be a policy decision. Our role is to simply be ready.”
Why It Matters: The implication of this is that Iranian Armed Forces are directly participating in attacks on U.S. Navy warships, an act of war. Congressional Iran hawks now have a justification for a formal declaration of war against Iran. Based on historical moves, they are unlikely to formally declare war and instead simply conduct operations against the Iranian Armed Forces. This does not have to include targets inside Iran but could include targeting Iranian warships at sea, as seen in Operation Praying Mantis. Iran’s other armed forces navy, the Islamic Republic of Iran Navy (IRIN), is operating near U.S. warships in the Red Sea that are likely to be the ones called for action. – J.V.
- EGYPT BUILDING WALL ON ISRAELI BORDER: Commercial satellite imagery has shown that Egypt is building a concrete block wall on Israel’s border. There are also crews leveling out the land nearby but not along the wall’s path.
- Egyptian officials refused to comment on the construction.
Why It Matters: This is another indicator that Israel is going to push forward into Rafah and that Egypt is preparing for war with Israel, as the wall can deter personnel and vehicles from crossing. The leveled area could indicate that this construction will have a more permanent post associated with it, which would signal that Egypt expects this to be a protracted war. The Rafah crossing is the entry point to the Sanai peninsula, which contains the Suez Canal. Any crisis in this region would likely have some effect on shipping but could result in fully shutting down the Red Sea. – J.V.
THAT’S A WRAP: This does it for today’s edition. Thank you for reading. If you know folks who would also like to receive this email, would you please forward it to them? We appreciate you spreading the word. – M.S