Global SITREP for Monday, 03 July 2023 – Forward Observer

Global SITREP for Monday, 03 July 2023

Good morning, and welcome to the Global Situation Report for Monday, 03 July 2023.

  1. FIRST UP: China to use new foreign policy law to target India beyond Beijing’s traditional jurisdiction.
  • Beijing is developing a new “long-arm” jurisdiction policy that allows them to detain and prosecute any person in any location that has violated a Chinese law.
  • This new policy mimics U.S. policies that set the precedent of expanded jurisdiction beyond the borders of the U.S.

Why It Matters: Beijing can now use the same extrajudicial actions that the U.S. has used in the past to target threat actors like Julia Assange or Huawei Chief Financial Officer Meng Wanzhou. Under China’s new foreign policy law, U.S. officials, business leaders, and activists that cross the Chinese-Communist Borders could be arrested and renditioned to China for prosecution.

  1. YELLEN TO BEIJING: U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is set to visit Beijing from 6-9 July.
  • Yellen plans to meet with senior officials on a broad range of topics, including the new counterespionage law.
  • The trip follows a similar visit by Secretary of State Antony Blinken that produced mediocre results.

Why It Matters: Yellen is expected to tell Chinese officials that the U.S. will continue its opposition to China’s human rights record and its military buildup but wants to work with China on important issues like climate change and international debt relief.


  1. MERCHANT OF DEATH TO RUN FOR REGIONAL LEGISLATURE IN RUSSIA: Arms dealer Viktor Bout, who was released in a prisoner swap for basketball player Brittney Griner has been chosen as a candidate for a regional legislature position in Russia.
  • Bout, also known as the Merchant of Death, served ten years of a 25-year sentence in a SuperMax prison before being released in a prisoner swap.
  • Bout was nominated for the nationalist Liberal Democratic Party of Russia.

Why It Matters: Bout was arrested for selling arms to America’s enemies and to global terrorists – a claim Bout has denied since his arrest. It is unknown whether he is back in business or has retired for good, but he has become a folk hero in Russia over his legal fight with the U.S.

  1. The Philippines calls for an intervention: Government officials in Manila called for a United Nations intervention.
  • The Philippines is calling for a United Nations proceeding to force China to abide by the Hague ruling that legitimized Philippine territorial boundaries. To date, China has ignored the ruling and continues to bully its neighbors by extracting resources from other their economic exclusive zones.
  • Presently a Chinese naval vessel, a coast guard vessel and a fleet of maritime militia are attempting to block the Philippine coast guard and navy from resupplying a Philippine Marine Corps outpost.

 Why It Matters: Regardless of any United Nations admonishment, China will likely continue to assert its claims in the Pacific as long as the Philippines and others like it lack the ability to fight back. The Philippines is set to receive the Indian-made Brahmos anti-ship missile sometime between now and December – the only potential game-changer for the region. – M.M.

  1. CHINA COMMITTED TO RUSSIA ALLIANCE: In a meeting on Monday, China’s Defense Minister Li Shangfu said China seeks closer ties with Russia, including joint efforts between both country’s militaries.
  • Western media propagandists have attempted to portray Russia as increasingly isolated following the aborted Wagner coup.
  • Li said he hoped the two navies could expand practical cooperation.

Why It Matters: An outcome of U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to Beijing last week was that China refused to maintain even minimal military-military dialogue with the U.S. On the other hand, during a Monday meeting with Nikolai Yevmenov, commander of Russia’s navy, Li said that China is committed to Russia’s fight against the West and is not intimidated by Washington’s words. Li said he hoped the “two navies could strengthen cooperation and regularly hold joint exercises and expand practical cooperation.” China is likely using Russia to buttress its resistance to U.S. foreign policy designed to contain China in the Pacific. – M.M.

DON’T MISS my next Early Warning report, focusing on developments in the global balance of power. It’s released to DailySA subscribers each Friday.

THAT’S A WRAP: This does it for today’s edition. Thank you for reading. If you know folks who would also like to receive this email, would you please forward it to them? We appreciate you spreading the word. – Max.

Max Morton is a retired Marine Corps Lieutenant Colonel and former CIA Paramilitary Operations Officer. He's now the Strategic Threats Analyst at Forward Observer.

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