Global SITREP for Monday, 03 June 2024 – Forward Observer

Global SITREP for Monday, 03 June 2024

Good morning, and welcome to the Global Situation Report for Monday, 03 June 2024.

  1. SHEINBAUM WINS MEXICAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: Leftist Morena Party candidate Claudia Sheinbaum won yesterday’s Mexican presidential election with about 60% of the vote. She defeated Xóchitl Gálvez, who was backed by a coalition of centrist and center-right parties.

Why It MattersSheinbaum is a protege of current President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO), who founded the socialist Morena Party. Sheinbaum is widely expected to continue AMLO’s left wing policies, while Morena maintains control of both chambers of the Mexican Congress.

  1. CHINESE MINDEF: PEACEFUL REUNIFICATION INCREASINGLY ERODED: Chinese Defense Minister Admiral Dong Jun announced at the Shangri-La Dialogue that “China stays committed to peaceful reunification. However, this prospect is increasingly being eroded by separatists for Taiwan independence and foreign forces.”
  • He accused the Taiwanese government of incremental separation, erasing Chinese identity and “severing social, historical, and cultural ties across the Strait.” As a point of emphasis, he promised, “Separatists will be nailed to the pillar of shame in History.”
  • He also accused “external forces” of using a salami-slicing strategy of arms sales, Taiwan-focused legislation, and official contact with Taiwan to hollow out the One-China Principle.

Why It Matters: Admiral Dong is confirming that China views peaceful reunification as less likely and, as such, will become increasingly belligerent around Taiwan. Notably, he did not include economic severance coming from the island. China is already pursuing this to persuade Taiwan to return to China and will likely increase this to include preventing Taiwanese goods from exiting to a third party via a law enforcement and military blockade. – J.V.

  • Global Rollup
    • China’s Defense Minister said the People’s Liberation Army would enhance cooperation under the United Nations framework and increase its contribution to peacekeeping forces to strengthen the United Nations’ authority.
    • China’s Coast Guard (CCG) prevented a medical evacuation and seized supplies heading to the Philippine Marines stationed on the BRP Sierra Madre grounded in the Second Thomas Shoal. (China will likely frame this as benevolence since they did not arrest the personnel carrying the supplies. This will allow them to further escalate from a “defensive” footing. – J.V.)
    • China reportedly landed an unmanned spacecraft on the far side of the moon over the weekend. Peru also signed onto the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s Artemis Program, which aims for manned missions to the moon next year and a lunar base by 2030. (This is a continuation of the new Space Race that will likely have broad terrestrial implications as the U.S. and China increasingly compete for access to spaceports in Latin America, particularly as their military forces are in close proximity and could face war as soon as this year. – J.V.)
    • Egypt will host another round of Palestinian and Israeli peace talks over an American peace proposal. Egypt expects Israel’s envoy today. However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that if the peace proposal is accepted, he will dissolve the government. Hamas agreed to the peace talks despite previously saying that peace was no longer an option.

THAT’S A WRAP: This does it for today’s edition. Thank you for reading. If you know folks who would also like to receive this email, would you please forward it to them? We appreciate you spreading the word. – M.S.

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