Global SITREP for Thursday, 11 July 2024 – Forward Observer

Global SITREP for Thursday, 11 July 2024

Good morning, and welcome to the Global Situation Report for Thursday, 11 July 2024.

  1. PHILIPPINES UNCOVERING MASSIVE CHINESE INFILTRATION: The Philippines National Bureau of Investigation (NBI), similar to the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation, is investigating multiple large-scale Chinese infiltrations into the Philippines.
  • A southern Filipino city issued “close to 200” falsified birth certificates to Chinese nationals just between 2018 and 2019. The regional director said he was sure there are likely many more, as this was discovered when a Chinese national attempted to get a Philippine passport.
  • The NBI is also investigating an ethnic Chinese mayor of a northern city who cannot provide evidence of her claimed birth in the Philippines. The NBI believes she is tied to numerous Chinese transnational criminal organizations running casinos in her province. The mayor refuses to appear in court.

Why It Matters: These tactics have worked for years in the Philippines and the Chinese are likely running it elsewhere. The Chinese will likely respond with harsh rhetoric, to be followed by increasing grayzone warfare if the Philippines begins deporting Chinese and issuing Persona Non Grata declarations, as they are fond of doing. Notably, the falsified birth certificates were issued in a region known for Islamic violence that could be agitated again. – J.V.

  1. NATO CALLS CHINA AN ENABLER IN “BIG AND STRATEGIC CHANGE”: NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg announced in a speech yesterday that “The message sent by NATO from this summit is very strong and very clear: we are clearly defining China’s responsibility for its facilitation of the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine.”
  • Stoltenberg declared that this is not a temporary or personal position but that this is a “big and strategic change” for NATO’s policy.
  • Stoltenberg followed up that the war in Ukraine is “driven by those who do not share our values,” meaning China, Iran, and North Korea.
  • China and Iran have already responded, with the Chinese Foreign Affairs Ministry calling NATO a “disrupter of peace and stability in the Asia Pacific.”

Why It Matters: NATO is identifying the support structure for its primary threat, which will allow it to formalize a process to disrupt that support structure in order to defeat the threat. This will likely result in greater integration with the Indo-Pacific Four numerous missions to Asia that are from NATO members but not officially sanctioned by NATO. In effect, this could be the first step toward an official recognition of Global NATO. – J.V.

  • Global Rollup
    • A video on Chinese social media showed the People’s Liberation Army practicing with man-portable air defense systems from civilian-colored boats against low-profile target drones. (Engaging enemies from civilian vessels is likely to make those types of vessels targets in any military engagement. – J.V.)
    • Japan’s Justice Ministry held a meeting with government officials from Fiji, the Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Samoa, Australia, and New Zealand to identify judicial issues facing the island nations, specifically regarding China, so that Japan can reflect their needs in Japan’s support measures.
    • A Japanese destroyer entered Chinese territorial waters off the eastern province of Zhejiang on 04 July while ignoring Chinese Navy warnings. The Japanese government told China the destroyer did nothing illegal after China protested the move this week.
    • The USS Blue Ridge, the flagship and headquarters of the U.S. Navy’s 7th Fleet, ported in Cam Ranh, Vietnam. (This is a major diplomatic move as Cam Ranh was a critically important naval base in the Vietnam War which U.S. Defense Department officials said should be as close to reestablished as possible in 2020. – J.V.)
    • Polish Chief of the General Staff General Wieslaw Kukula said the Polish Armed Forces needs to prepare “for full-scale conflict, not an asymmetric-type conflict.” This includes 2,000 additional troops on the border with Russia and Belarus. 

THAT’S A WRAP: This does it for today’s edition. Thank you for reading. If you know folks who would also like to receive this email, would you please forward it to them? We appreciate you spreading the word. – M.S.

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