Global SITREP for Tuesday, 11 July 2023 – Forward Observer

Global SITREP for Tuesday, 11 July 2023

Good morning, and welcome to the Global Situation Report for Tuesday, 11 July 2023.

  1. FIRST UP: NATO member states attempt to finalize security guarantees for Ukraine
  • NATO primary member states are reportedly negotiating a framework of security guarantees for Ukraine but will wait until the end of the NATO summit in Vilnius this week to reveal their plan.
  • NATO has abstained from offering membership to Ukraine in order to avoid entering a direct conflict with Russia.

Why It Matters: Ukraine is not getting an invitation to NATO, primarily because it would immediately trigger an Article V intervention against Russia and secondarily because Ukraine does not abide by the human rights and democracy requirements for admission. Despite tough talk from the U.S. and U.K. punditry, Ukraine will need to demonstrate that it is more than a proxy kleptocracy to gain admission to NATO – something that will take time and likely require regime change in Kiev. – M.M.

  1. NETHERLANDS: Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte will leave politics following the elections in November.
  • Rutte was the infamous driver behind unpopular climate change initiatives to seize farmland and restrict agricultural production in the Netherlands.
  • Rutte on Friday handed in the resignation of his fourth cabinet after failing to reach an agreement on stricter immigration policies.

Why It Matters: Rutte became increasingly unpopular as the face of globalism and World Economic Forum policies, which were radically impacting life in the Netherlands. His resignation paves the way for more moderate domestic policies which take into account runaway immigration and counterproductive economic and energy policies. – M.M.


  1. ALL-IN FOR CHINA: The Solomon Islands signs new joint policing pact with China
  • The police cooperation pact was among a series of deals signed after Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavaret’s visit to Beijing and meetings with Chinese Premier Li Qiang.
  • Last month, Sogavare called for a review of a 2017 security treaty with Australia, which provided policing support to the Solomon Islands.

Why It Matters: The Solomon Islands’ security pact with China is an example of “elite capture” in action. Copious amounts of money were distributed to Solomon Island politicians to encourage the change of allegiance from Taiwan to China. Even more bribery was observed in the run-up to the 2022 Solomon Islands security pact with China. Barring any Western interventions, expect China to maintain dominance in the Pacific island nation and eventually convert it to a client state complete with Chinese military facilities. – M.M.

  1. LIFELINE: Saudis provide $2bn to cash-strapped Pakistan
  • Saudi Arabia’s $2 billion lifeline will go to the State Bank of Pakistan to shore up foreign exchange reserves.
  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) just agreed to a $3 billion, nine-month Standby Arrangement.

Why It Matters: Pakistan has been on the edge of default since former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s administration looted Pakistan’s treasury in a flurry of international borrowing and patronage spending. Khan was forced from office; however, the global inflation crisis set in shortly thereafter, driving up the cost of Islamabad’s excessive sovereign debt. China, a longtime ally of Pakistan, and the IMF appear to believe Islamabad’s house is now sufficiently in order to provide this lifeline of financial support. – M.M.

  1. NOT OVER?: Belarus reportedly waiting on more Wagner troops
  • According to social media accounts of Wagner fighters, the remainder of Wagner PMC is expected to relocate to Belarus in August following a period of home leave.
  • Some reporting indicates Wagner will build its own facilities in Belarus, although the location for those alternate facilities has yet to be disclosed.

Why It Matters: Despite initial comments from Belarusian President Alexandr Lukashenko that Wagner and its leader Yevgeny Prigozhin were in Belarus, it appears that Prigozhin is back in St Petersburg, Russia, and a majority of Wagner fighters were released on a month’s home leave. The true future role of Wagner in the Ukraine war is still a mystery, although it is likely that reports they will relocate to Belarus along with an additional brigade-sized Russian military unit are accurate. Some analysts believe Moscow is allowing Kiev and its NATO patrons to exhaust themselves logistically with Ukraine’s counteroffensive and may follow up with assaults on Kiev and Kharkiv – in which Wagner could play a key role. – M.M.

DON’T MISS my next Early Warning report, focusing on developments in the global balance of power. It’s released to DailySA subscribers each Friday.

THAT’S A WRAP: This does it for today’s edition. Thank you for reading. If you know folks who would also like to receive this email, would you please forward it to them? We appreciate you spreading the word. – M.M.

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