Good morning, and welcome to the Global Situation Report for Wednesday, 10 April 2024.
- XI: NO ONE CAN STOP TAIWAN REUNIFICATION: Chinese President Xi Jinping told former Taiwanese president Ma Ying-jeou that no outside force could stop the reunification of Taiwan with mainland China.
- “External interference cannot stop the historical trend of reunion of the country and family,” Xi said, according to Taiwanese media.
Why It Matters: Xi is likely correct that no one will stop reunification with Taiwan. I remain doubtful that the United States will militarily intervene in the defense of Taiwan, which is likely to meet the same fate as Hong Kong. The U.S. strategy appears to be delaying Chinese action on Taiwan until semiconductor manufacturing can begin in the United States. Meanwhile, the U.S. aims to enable Taiwan to defend itself from and resist a potential military invasion. China almost certainly prefers reunification through means beneath the threshold of conventional war. – M.S.
- PRO-U.S. PARTY LIKELY TO LOSE SEATS IN SOUTH KOREA: South Korean media is reporting that the ruling People Power Party is likely to lose seats in the National Assembly during today’s elections.
- The People Power Party is running on increased security ties with Japan and the United States, while the opposition Democratic Party is campaigning on better economic ties with China.
Why It Matters: Among U.S. regional allies, South Korea seems to be the most reluctant to disrupt relations with China. The country remembers the sting of a 2017 travel embargo when China banned travel to South Korea in response to the deployment of U.S. air defense and radar systems. South Korea reneged on the U.S. deal in order to resume Chinese tourist visits, which represent an important part of the South Korean economy. Losing parliamentary seats is a defeat for President Yoon Suk Yeol, who has advocated closer ties with the United States. China will almost certainly use this development as leverage during next month’s trilateral talks with South Korea and Japan. – M.S.
- Global Rollup
- The U.S. Coast Guard boarded several Chinese fishing vessels near Vanuatu, Kiribati, and Papua New Guinea over the past month. China’s Ambassador to New Zealand described the actions as a violation of international law and said Chinese ships do not have to comply.
- U.S. Central Command intercepted thousands of machine guns and sniper rifles along with 500,000 rounds of ammunition being transferred from Iran to Yemen. The Department of Justice reported the firearms and ammunition have been transferred to the Ukrainian military.
THAT’S A WRAP: This does it for today’s edition. Thank you for reading. If you know folks who would also like to receive this email, would you please forward it to them? We appreciate you spreading the word. – M.S.