Global SITREP for Wednesday, 24 May 2023

Good morning, and welcome to the Global Situation Report for Wednesday, 24 May 2023. 

WHAT: The Global SITREP is a free daily email briefing about geopolitics and defense from Forward Observer. 

WHY: We want to share five important global developments shaping Cold War 2.0.

BOTTOM LINE: We’re sending out this email Monday through Friday on a trial basis through the end of the month, so be sure to let us know if you want it continued. Thank you! – M.S.

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1. FIRST UP: Turkey, Iran allegedly dismantle Mossad spy ring

• The Turkish MIT intelligence service has arrested 11 of 15 individuals alleged to make up an Israeli Mossad spy ring, according to Turkish media. The alleged Mossad network was reportedly gathering information against Iranian targets.  [READ MORE]
• In a separate press release, Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence (MOIS) added that this network routinely monitored the foreign travel of Iranians and identified those with high levels of placement and access within Iran.

Why It Matters: Details are sparse as of this morning, however, the alleged Mossad spy ring could have been involved in providing targeting information for personnel associated with Iran’s nuclear program.

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2. HYPERSONICS: China tests missiles against U.S. carrier

• Military researchers in China used a simulation to test hypersonic missile strikes against a U.S. carrier strike group. 
• Researchers noted that simulations may differ from the real-world where terrain and weather could affect missile trajectories. [READ MORE]

Why It Matters: China’s war strategy includes destroying U.S. carriers by overwhelming missile defense systems. This capability may also decrease the likelihood that the U.S. intervenes directly in potential Chinese military operations against Taiwan.

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3. GLOBAL NATO: Japanese PM considering NATO meeting

• Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is considering attendance at July’s NATO summit in Lithuania. He reportedly plans to continue work on NATO interoperability. [READ MORE]
• NATO officials recently announced plans to open a liaison office in Tokyo.

Why It Matters: There’s some truth to Chinese media accusations that the West is building a Global NATO. NATO officials have also been developing military interoperability with South Korea.

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4. RED OCTOBER: Russian nuclear sub to be re-based in Pacific

• Russia announced the permanent re-basing of its newest nuclear submarine to the Rybachiy submarine base in Kamchatka to bolster the strength of its Pacific fleet. 
• The move is scheduled for August. [READ MORE]

Why It Matters: Russia and China have accused Japan of militarization, while conducting exercises amid disputed Japanese islands. Japanese officials worry that these islands will be in play during a potential Taiwan conflict.

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5. TRANSCOM: U.S. will have to “fight to get to the fight”

• U.S. Transportation Command’s General Jacqueline Van Ovost told members of Congress that current threats facing the U.S. military will force them to “fight to get to the fight” in the next conflict.
• Van Ovost noted that 85% of the U.S. military is in the continental United States, while adversaries have developed long range missiles, and cyber and space-based weapons that will threaten deployments in the last thousand miles.

Why It Matters: Military leaders have long acknowledged the overall lack of sealift capacity and constraints on transportation defense. The reality is that a couple of Russian or Chinese submarines could significantly disrupt transportation through the Atlantic and Pacific as the Navy suffers from an underinvestment in anti-submarine warfare.

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DON’T MISS: Retired Marine Lt. Col. and former CIA Paramilitary Operations Officer Max Morton releases his next Indications & Warning report this Friday. It’s available to Early Warning subscribers.

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THAT’S A WRAP: This does it for today’s edition. If you want us to keep going, let us know in the comments or via email. And sign up below to receive this report in your inbox each day, Monday through Friday.

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