Thoughts on “CIVIL WAR 2 in America – WHO WOULD WIN?” Video

After seeing this video posted around social media a handful of times, I finally decided watch it. It’s on a YouTube channel called John Mark and it’s about his views on Civil War 2, which is a frequent topic on this blog.

I’m reminded of the Clausewitz quote, “Everything in war is very simple, but the simplest thing is difficult.” In other words, thinking through and executing a war is easier said than done. The killing people part can be commonly understood, but winning a war is actually very complex. That tends to glossed over when talking about conflict, especially “Civil War 2,” which is why this topic has become a pet peeve of mine.

What really piqued my interest about this particular is that it’s supposedly an “in-depth analysis,” a point on which I disagree. I found it to be very superficial. And I don’t mean to be rude or condescending, I just think for as complete as its being sold, it lacks a lot of important factors, which I’ll detail below.

And that’s not to make light of the serious points discussed, but I’ll point out some glaring flaws of the thinking here, along with time stamps. (John Mark, if you read this or if someone can get us in touch, there are a lot of things to consider when thinking through a conflict scenario. You’ve considered a lot of factors. I believe you’re missing some critical ones. I do this for a living, and I’d be happy to talk with you about your video and matrix.)

 

First, let me start off by saying I agree with a few things.

1. Many Americans on both sides are angry at each other.

2. Demographically speaking, the Left is going to be able to achieve one-party rule within the next 10 years. (The next time they get power, they can push through amnesty and create a permanent majority. My thoughts on this point are covered here, from April 2018.)

3. Trump very well could be the last Republican president, which I’ve pointed out numerous times on this Dispatch blog.

 

Now let’s get into what wrong, which is a lot…

 

~4:00: John Mark begins reading off this alleged “red team” (RT) planner’s analysis. RT makes the statement: “The moment civil war is declared, the government loses,” which is patently false.

Let’s consider that the government is full of bureaucrats, many (possibly most) of whom are Left Wing apparatchiks, as evidenced by how President Trump finds it so difficult to get mid-level apparatchiks to implement the policies with which they disagree. Unlike you, they will keep their jobs during this war.

I would push back on the idea that the federal government is completely helpless because government controls financial institutions: bank accounts, 401ks, IRAs, other retirement accounts and pensions, etc. An enormous amount of power and influence can be brought to bear against those involved in a legitimate civil war. (Side note: If you expect to fight in this civil war, you might want to cash out before it happens.)

Under a Democratic president, that power and influence would absolutely target the ‘domestic terrorists’. We’re talking about easy territory for Emergency Powers, in which the finances of those involved would be immediately frozen and probably confiscated.

That means in addition to being on the run from at least federal law enforcement (if not parts of the military), you have no job, you have no income, you have no access to your finances, you will lose your house, your family’s well-being will be put in jeopardy, and that’s going to keep a lot of people out of this supposed fight.

We’re not talking about millions of Americans walking away from their jobs, or taking time off work, to go fight in some fantasy civil war. And it’s incredibly short-sighted to think that any force opposing the federal government would win in the snap of some fingers, as RT alleges.

We’re not looking at a high intensity, conventional war. It’s not going to happen. What’s far more likely is that states or regions disassociate themselves from federal authority and decouple from the Union, if a war were to occur. But, again, I’d point out that so many Americans are so dependent on a functioning national economy and our financial system that there’s too much at risk for most people to get involved at any level. This is going to bring financial hardships that most have not considered.

You have to understand that a conventional war like the one John Mark and RT are talking about would be the end of trillions of dollars of financial interests. Win, lose, or draw, it means losing everything because a left wing government is not going to allow ‘domestic terrorists’ to have comfortable lives. They will immediately seek ways to raise the cost of your involvement, and they need the money, anyway. Stealing your bank accounts and retirement savings is a no-brainer.

 

6:20: “[Disrupting public utilities like electricity] would also turn the people against the government more quickly and paralyze the government’s propaganda machine.” I’ve been to Iraq and Afghanistan where utilities were disrupted by insurgents. The people didn’t blame the government for the attacks. They mostly blamed the Americans, followed by the insurgents.

Even if attacks to take down the grid were successful, we’re again talking about the immediate loss of trillions of dollars in financial interests. You are not going to be heralded as the saviors of the country. You are going to be seen as domestic terrorists, and you’re going to piss off a lot of people — including law enforcement, military, and others who may have nominally been on your side, but who’s lives will be vastly more difficult because they no longer have their livelihoods, retirements, pensions, or benefits. And now their families are put at risk because you took away the last part of convenient life they had.

I also need to point out that John Mark gives a “big advantage” to the right wing in their ability to take out the power grid. Furthermore, John Mark says of this: “The Left establishment and the military have no equivalent ability to create such a big bang for buck type activity [sic] or leverage over the grassroots right wing revolutionaries.”

Wrong.

You know what’s easier than taking out the power grid? The government selectively turning off parts of the grid under its emergency powers. The power goes down in areas where the uprisings are the worst and the government lets the people know that the power comes back on as soon as the uprising is quelled. This happens around the world all the time. It’s a standard procedure, along with cell services. That’s a lot of people who want a return to normalcy and who are now turned against the insurgents. That’s a lot of people turning on the insurgents so they can get their lives restored.

 

8:00: RT then goes on to describe that government studies show that 30 percent of the American public would join a revolution against the government. I can’t confirm or deny that, and neither can RT without some evidence. (Does John Mark even mention where he found RTs post?)

We’d have to break down this 30 percent along the lines of what we know to be true about modern civil wars: only a small fraction does any of the fighting. Maybe one percent on average, certainly no more than five percent. The rest would provide what’s called “combat support” or “combat service support.” Transportation, logistics, sabotage, propaganda, etc. — the other two sides of the three-part insurgency (guerrilla fighters, the underground, the auxiliary). Read this for additional information.

RT claims that, historically, you only need 10 percent of a population to participate in an armed rebellion in order to win. One of the most preeminent thinkers and strategists on guerrilla warfare, USMC Brigadier General Samuel Griffith and his studies show that popular support from 15-25 percent of the population is the bottom of what’s required for a successful insurgency. I don’t know where RT got his information, but I’m willing to share my citations if he’ll share his.

John Mark claims that 10-15 million Americans consider themselves Alt-Right, which was probably based on the famous 2016 poll, back when Alt-Right still meant merely ‘fed up with the GOP establishment,’ instead of the association with white nationalism that it carries today. Maybe there are legitimately 10-15 million white nationalists in America, but they’re geographically dispersed and have negligible political power. And the establishment is dead set on limiting their influence. Even if that number were 15 million, the Alt-Right represents less than five percent of the American populace — which is far short of what’s required for a successful insurgency. In other words, a “white nationalist civil war” is not going to happen. A “conservative civil war” is only slightly more likely, as I’ll explain below. When viewed in proper context, the point John Mark is actually making favors secession or a regional conflict with a higher likelihood of success… which is a far more likely possibility than a conventional, nationwide, coast to coast civil war, which is just bonkers to consider.

 

11:45: RT points out that the U.S. is among the world’s largest arms manufacturers. In the event of a civil war, the federal government would immediately move to shut down and confiscate production. In the lead up, there would likely be laws and additional regulations, which would ironically accelerate the conflict. Either way, these factories won’t be churning out arms during the conflict.

On the topic of 4GW and Afghanistan, the thinking here is incredibly, incredibly short-sighted and people who say these things have no clue what they’re talking about.

YES, the Taliban has run circles around U.S. Forces in Afghanistan but let’s keep in mind a few things…

– The kill ratio for U.S. soldiers is something like 30:1. That is, 30 Taliban killed for every one U.S. soldier. U.S. Forces win a large majority of tactical engagements. By a landslide, it’s not even close. Tactically, no one is better than the U.S. military. Afghanistan was a strategic loss due to politics, the doctrinal failures of nation building, and our “security partners” in the Afghan military and government, 90% of whom were too incompetent and/or too corrupt to win.

– U.S. Forces were greatly limited by resources and manpower in Afghanistan. Nearly everything soldiers used or consumed was flown or driven in from out of country. That won’t be the case in the United States.

– This is probably the greatest differing factor: Had Afghanistan ubiquitously adopted social media like Americans, that war would have been over in weeks. If I, as a targeting intelligence analyst, had access to years worth of Facebook photos and check-ins, Twitter posts, YouTube videos, Instagram photos, and other information, we could have mapped out insurgent cells in hours. (In fact, there’s software that can automatically do that for you.) Access to that kind of data is a targeteer’s dream.

You throw in Google data, cell phone geolocation, Ancestry DNA, and people who know you and also hate you, and we’re talking about an incredible amount of targeting intelligence — not to mention some of it would be real-time. Yes, there are frustrations with that volume of information and those kinds of data, but most people who engage in the “civil war” talk don’t understand how radically their lives would have to change in order to avoid being killed or captured.

John Mark and whoever else can talk about 4GW as much as they want, but if that’s as much as you understand about warfighting and how wars are executed in real life, you don’t know enough.

 

AT THIS POINT

At this point, I’m going to stop annotating this whole video and end with a few final points and some conclusions based on John Mark’s final conclusions.

 

There’s far more to consider about this conflict than what this video shows. John Mark’s matrix is extremely simple and likely inaccurate for at least a few reasons.

The first reason is because America is so geographically, politically, and ideologically diverse, generalized statements will be wrong in many cases. For instance, even generalizing about the military is difficult because there are other important factors than merely how they voted. Yes, there are good reasons to believe that the military favored President Trump in 2016. That doesn’t mean a majority will favor, much less fight, in a revolution. There are economic, ideological, and psychological factors to consider. It also doesn’t mean that a vote for Trump is going to be a vote for revolution. Some may have voted for Trump because he promised to end the wars and not start any new ones. A vote doesn’t indicate die-hard ideology, which is why you can’t just say, ‘Well, the military mostly voted for Trump, therefore the military would fight in a revolution.’ (That’s not a direct quote, but that was the gist.)

Additionally, conditions in western Oregon, northern Georgia, and Rhode Island are so widely different that they defy a shared generalization. If you’re going to look at a civil war, we have to look region by region. Politics, race and ethnicity, ideology, human terrain, physical terrain, willingness to get involved in the conflict, law enforcement opinion, other particular advantages, etc., all widely vary. YOU CANNOT MAKE SWEEPING GENERALIZATIONS about a country this diverse. It’s a shortcut, it’s lazy, and you’ll be wrong about a great many things in a great many areas if you do.

Another reason why the matrix is superficial is because it doesn’t contain a wide enough spectrum of indicators. There are some really great factors not considered, like quality of leadership, quality of troops, operational terrain, military efficiency, appeal of program, ability to (securely) communicate, and lots of others. You can’t accurately analyze two sides of a conflict unless you can accurately measure what matters. John Mark’s matrix is very incomplete.

Another reason why it’s simple is because it doesn’t portray a specific measurement of anything. The right way to do a matrix like this is to assign points, such as on a scale of 1-3 or 1-5 or 1-10. Actual measurements scored according to empirical data is a far better way to accurately measure who has the advantage in any particular factor… and I’d again point out that these advantages differ greatly by region, so the integrity of the entire matrix is questionable at best, even if some generalizations are generally true (i.e., the moot point of nuclear weapons).

Based on this oversimplification, what John Mark probably doesn’t realize is that a complete matrix would actually make a case against a national revolution or civil war, and instead make a great case for a regional conflict or possibly war for secession.

I’ve been writing about low intensity conflict and why it’s the model for what’s ahead — and also for what’s already happening — for the better part of two or three years. (Start here for a primer.)

John Mark ends his video by saying, “[The grassroots Right] will have ZERO political power in the current system,” which is also not true.

Red states will continue to have state power. The lower courts and Supreme Courts have conservative majorities. The GOP will be relegated to a regional party, but they’ll maintain some political power outside of the Executive branch. The Senate favors the GOP for next several years if not a decade, unless amnesty happens. Even then, you’re going to see states file lawsuits, a lower court Trump appointee is going to issue an injunction against amnesty, and it’s going to play out with a conservative majority SCOTUS.

But generally I do agree that we need to start looking at our options because this stuff is going to happen. There’s a  good likelihood of Democratic one-party rule within ten years. That’s going to be significantly disruptive, and it makes eventual conflict inevitable… not nationally, but regionally.

My two cents. Disagree? Let me know in the comments. (You can watch the video here.)

 

Always Out Front,

Samuel Culper

Samuel Culper is a former Intelligence NCO and contractor. Iraq(x1)/Afghanistan(x2). He now studies intelligence and warfare.

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48 Comments

  1. You really nailed it. I had so many fundamental problems with this video that it was hard to quantify. Once you begin to critique it, the flood gates open and a single criticism became mired in associated problems with the logic. Your take was simple and well spoken Thank you.

    1. Hey Jay – Good to hear from you. And I agree, after a while into the video, I just threw my hands up and thought, “This post is going to be 10,000 words at this rate” so I gave up. I got your email. Interested. Will reply this afternoon.

      1. The really surreal part of the video was the comment section filled with those who believe their “leftist enemy” would be limited to wimpy sjw soy boys, and not shopkeepers, engineers, firemen, teachers and all the other normal people who aren’t afraid of slightly more immigration and cheaper college. I struggle to understand what they would even use to justify a civil war? The Left Majority likely already exists, and it’s mainly made up of centrist neoliberals anyway. So potential rebels will have to ask themselves if opposing more immigrants, transgender rights, and other more progressive ideas is worth fighting and dying for. I just don’t see it happening.

    2. I have never heard so much nonsense from John Mark, I fought in Nam got a Purple Heart. Nutty Mark doesn’t know anything about the military, says 75% would go AWOL. That’s laughable. All he going to do is piss off the population. Like these groups that play soldier, overweight, out of shape. These people that see someone die will quit, I see it in Nam. FNG’s will run, it happened when we were in Cambodia, a guy still on a hill in Cambodia, never seen a firefight they will panic I has to hold guys down, and how many can stand killing, that’s the reason the Nazis went to gas chambers. These people are getting themselves in trouble. There a law advocating the overthrow of our government. It’s 18 U.S. Code & 2385. Some of the people on the site might found themselves in trouble with Home Security, Probably the reason he wears a helmet. And he asking for money for membership. It could be the feds doing this to found out rotten apples. Homeland security is out there. There some on these sites that are not good people.

  2. I think John Mark is someone who lacks the experience to make the judgements that he did, even if well meaning. Also, he probably shouldn’t use a several years old copypasta from /pol/ as his reference material. (And then not mention where it came from in the video)

    Just google image “Red Team Planner” and the original is all over the place.

  3. The complexity is hard to quantify and I agree with your points but for one critical and I do mean critical point I don’t see anyone talking about. Out of state actors. Russia, China, MS 13, Drug Cartels, gangs…etc. There will be those that take advantage of this conflict and of course make it worse. I mean America the beautiful is on fire, who is going to help and who is going to pour gasoline? I predict the re structure of the USA, states will defy the US gov’t, people will migrate away from the problem areas, leave things behind. Start over. Quite frankly it will be awful. But I think it is inevitable.

    1. I share your concern with state actors. I’ve discussed this in previous posts and also on Forward Observer Radio. I can’t say that there are any good answers.

  4. Totally agree with your assessment. Not sure what these guys think. ‘I’m going to wave my gun and fire some shots in the air the Left will capitulate.’ First armed resistance and you become a domestic terrorist. Be prepared to give up everything; income, home, family, freedom and possibly life. Conducting an insurgency will mean hurting and killing innocent people, possibly friends and family, so if you’re a moral person there is going to be mental anguish, guilt and stress. Not suggesting we succumb to the Left but there are considerations beyond guns and ammo. Currently reading Max Boot’s Invisible Armies – The Epic History of Guerrilla Warfare as a primer.

  5. I would also say that there will be hardened cities that will be protected by specialized paramilitary forces and within them intelligence type apparatus analyzing and directing the domestic conflict of civillians. It is likely the grid will go down in certain regions but not all. Most cities will be chaos and contained for civil war, other than those protected. Outside of those contained and protected cities there won’t be much coordinated efforts to this coming hot conflict.

  6. I agree and disagree. While many Americans would be resistant to giving up their life of comfort and playthings, hard-core insurgents would understand and accept the sacrifices involved. This has been the case in every insurgency since the Revolutionary War. I will also point out that the signers of the Constitution sacrificed their lives and fortunes for freedom.
    Comparing an American insurgency to Afghanistan or Iraq really has no merit. Not only are there millions of veterans who still know very well how to employ weapons systems effectively, there are also millions of citizens who have intimate knowledge of their local areas from hunting those areas. They also possess high-caliber scoped hunting rifles and are quite good with them. It’s an apples and oranges comparison. One should also keep in mind that there is always someone out there willing to help the little guy.
    Sure, there are drones and whatnot, but there are ways of beating those, too. People leave the military every day, and all that knowledge goes with them.

  7. You paint a grim picture of the future of this great nation. Once the left gains permanent control, then the country that I love will cease to exist. It will no longer be worthy of loyalty. The government will simply become an enemy something to be despised and sabotaged at every opportunity. At that point the best you could hope for is death..because there will be no liberty. Perhaps Ol Yellowstone super volcano will finally go off and destroy the Continent and the grand experiment will be over. It ‘s also possible real Americans will come together in certain areas and secede forming a new America. Of course Americans….Real Americans may simply become extinct.

  8. Always good to hear about the so called civil war 2.0 by a dedicated Marxist. You are off quite a lot on many fronts. It was an amusing fantasy. I always like hearing how much we will lose and how ineffective it will be. Sorry, but I find your conclusions bordering on the ridiculous and uninformed. I would love to entertain you with my thoights, but frankly it would be a waste of my time.

  9. I think John Mark oversimplifies a bunch of his points, and I disagree with him altogether on a few…

    …that said, I think he’s dead on that, in the event of a general Conservative uprising (more of a Revolutionary War than a Civil War), the military would be either useless (tears itself apart in a barracks war) or mostly on the side of the Conservatives (“mostly” being enough that units either disintegrate due to desertion or outright defect).

    Without the intact US Armed Forces, the government’s options grow thinner, as the LE and Domestic Security agencies are utterly inadequate to wage an open shooting war (and the rump “official” armed forces would likely be busy trying to cope with their deserted/defected counterparts). You can bet that the national surveillance and intel assets would be under serious physical assault (by the higher-end insurgents, Rebel military, or turncoats who pretend they are still loyal to the government).

    It gets even sportier if sufficient chunks of State and Local governments declare for the Revolution.

  10. Good analysis of John Mark’s postulated future. The geographic separation of the Redoubt regions appear to me too wide for successful coordination and massing in a grid + comm degraded national hot conflict in addition to influences from outside state actors direct or covert. A low level conflict somewhat warmer than now coupled with expanded list of poor government economic and political policies would seem to point to a slow roll, generational, Roman Republic type collapse with Goths (drug cartels, warlords, state actors, etc) picking at the pieces; barring other Black Swan events taking longer than my remaining lifespan to complete.
    Thanks for video. Looking forward to future ones.
    Nav

  11. You are not an analysis that can address this type of concept. Neither are the other two guys. Sergeants are not assigned tasks this strategic. Speculation is just that, speculation.

  12. Thanks for taking the time.

    I haven’t bothered to watch what I was sure was the exact amateurish “analysis” you fisked, because they’re all the same thing, each and every time.

    Neither side is going to have the cake walk they envision, ever, in several lifetimes.

    Destroying things is always easy, for either side, on a small scale.
    What the large scale consequences of those individual instances will become is best explained by the Butterfly Effect.

    What is also true is that either side pushing for it is going to unleash conflict(s) that they aren’t ready for, and bring consequences they didn’t think about, didn’t know they didn’t think about, and in most cases, are incapable of even imagining.

    This will therefore not end well.

    Despite this, one side is pushing for it with both arms.
    Like a divorce, it only takes one party to pull everything down, and they’re not going to get what they like, nor like what they get.

    But we’re all going over the falls in the same barrel.

    The people not working to mitigate the impact, and then react symmetrically or asymmetrically to what follows, are the ones in for the roughest time.

    Like always.

  13. I admire and agree with much of your analysis, and agree that many over-simplify the concept as well as the application of civil war and even insurrection. Given the past decade or so it is understandable that many see the conflict as being between Liberal and Conservative, Democrat V. Republican etc. and assume the initiation of conflict will arise from a frustrated “right.” Might it be worth considering that the first and most valuable piece of intel is to properly identify the parties involved? I would suggest that the conflict is truly between the Globalists and Statists. There are many interwoven on both sides of the political aisles, which raises more issues than the cut and dried lines of North v South of the past, or even the regional issues of conflict or succession. Additionally, it may be worth considering the initiation of conflict to originate from the Globalists due to their raising frustration with the Statists in the Freedom caucus and Trump administration.

    Just my 2¢

  14. I have been a civilian for way too long to debate the pros and cons of all this. While I knew the video probably didn’t cover every aspect of this, I do know unequivocally that regardless of how it goes down, it has to happen. Many will not participate. For those that do, you have to not care about losing material possessions, 401k etc. Many of our forefathers lost all of it, everything. To my way of thinking, if we are going to keep America in the vision our forefathers laid out, we have to have the same level of commitment, otherwise the whole discussion is just academic anyway.

  15. I agree, i watched the video and felt it had too many flaws, a pretty obvious bias for the RED and some bad assumptions, this article is a good critique although i wish it was longer.

    As for what i think, i wont be surprised if the USA will slowly split apart in to smaller nations, as we have seen in history, these huge nations always split and get back together every few hundred years. ( Just look at China )

    1. “Civil war” is a very broad and poorly defined term. Will there be civil war a la 1861? No. Will there be Americans killing Americans? Already happening. What we’re going to experience, specifically, is low intensity conflict.

  16. A very real possibility is the left will split into 2 parties (left and far left) creating a 3 party system. I would not count on them holding this massive surge to the left together for the longer term. Should that be the case, the Republicans will remain relevant for a long time to come.

  17. I am not a military analyst, nor one who has any particular expertise in any type of warfare.
    Yet, my take on all of the talk about civil war is that things must get much worse before the average citizen will notice that everything he/she held near and dear is gone. At that point, there may be a genuine uprising involving the majority. People in my area just look blank when I try to discuss current events.
    Uprising is inevitable, and will come, however. That day is in the unpredictable future. It may be too late.

  18. War is, at best, unfortunate. When two opposing ideologies arrive at the same time there is little doubt there will be conflict. Politically this has been going on for years. I’m not about to debate the pros and cons of one side or the other. There are entirely too many variables in any conflict to delineate who will win the day in the end. “Treasonous” actions are likely to occur on both sides compounding every issue at stake. If it comes down to city vs. country, well city loses in the long run as they will likely starve out. They cannot survive a siege intact. Air support for the city… Only possibility where the ground is controlled… and any small squad with shoulder fired weapons can negate the operational efficiency of an airlift operation for supplies. There are no guarantees regarding a win or loss for either side in an armed conflict. Who can place a price, or statistic, on resolve, conviction, and guts? Personally I don’t believe any of us has any better idea of how a war would come out any more than we know the date of Christ’s return. I’m just sorry to see there will be no other alternative. I believe, as you do, this will end in bloodshed. To what extent will remain unanswered until the dust has settled.

  19. The Right is already 50 years late and way behind in the implementation of 4GW. This type of warfare has been practiced by the Left for a long time against traditional America and they are very successful at it. Actual combat is a very small part of this kind of warfare. This type of warfare includes politics, social infiltration, academia, media and substantial funding. Modern 4GW would also include the tech world and the Left controls most of this too. There are several non-centralized entities with no one command structure to attack…ie Antifa with multiple different independent but loosely coordinated chapters who sometimes work with Black Lives Matter who sometimes work with the Democratic Socialists of America who sometimes work with the DNC who sometimes work with the various other socialist and Communist groups who all work with each other at times and alone in their various objectives. It’s very hard to target them. Then they have foreign governments and persons who spread propaganda and funding. Add in big tech, media and the DNC weaponizing a lot of the law enforcement agencies and you get 4GW. We are already fighting a war that started a long time ago.

    John Mark is correct about some things….current and future voting demographics and the right will very soon be voted out of the picture. The right does have the firepower.

    However in order to utilize firepower to gain the upper hand, it must be coordinated in key areas quickly. He also never mentions communication in which the Right would need. Communication is absolutely necessary in a country as diverse and large as ours. Leadership would have to evolve as soon as any action occurs. As stated in the critique any action would be regional and after the action it would need to be held, controlled and with the backing of the nearby citizens. If you do not have the blessing of the local masses you are proverbially screwed. If the people sympathize with your side, you win. This would be very hard as the media and tech are leftist. You can get the masses on your side by showing the other side as bullies. Most people are still centrist.

    After the win, what do you do with the lefties? They would need to have their own country. You can’t annihilate them. It can’t stay the way it was.

    1. I believe no one really knows until the first car bombing or a fuel truck is used as an IED. I think people can tolerate one or two deaths and not say much. But you start getting near a 100 plus at one time it is different.

      I do agree that it will be regional and I means many regions. I think a good review for all is the Chechen War. Their are some excellent footage of Chechens trapping and killing hundreds of Russian Soldiers.

      I also feel that your infrastructure will play a huge part. Take the City of Atlanta Ga. It gets its water from surrounding lakes. If that water supply is removed then what.

      How hard is it to leave an abandoned car packed with explosives under a major interstate bridge? You have to remember large portions of your electrical grids pass through rural areas. What happens if you drop one metal power pole. Must people that I know living in rural areas have generators.

      It only takes one lone wolf to do this. They could be doing this to start a war. Who knows. And if you really want to understanding how critical infrastructure is just review the annual engineering report on infrastructure. If not mistaken all large cities get a grade “D”. That is horrible and tells you that they are on the vague of collapse.

      Just think about the City of Flint and it water supply. What happens if the truck drives because of the roads being to dangerous to travel decide to do locale hauls only. That is happening to some extent now. Some insurance companies are starting to refuse to haul into areas that are lawless. And, insurance companies are refusing to insure those loads.

      Some trucking companies have purposed that they drop the load off 30-40 miles outside of some of these cities and the cities be responsible for getting the loads in themselves.

      The SFC is exactly correct that you can do a top down analysis and find the bad actors. But not the lone wolves. So far the only areas that are impacted is your big cities. The next question is this. Is Antifa and BLMs willing to venture outside of their safety zones. Not really, I would say.

      People have very little respect for government now. Much less law enforcement. How is defunding the police going to have an affect. You think that they will be motivate to do a better job for the people that has treated them so badly? You think they are going to not have money no way. Some will become bad actors and work for cartels just like now. But, in greater numbers.

      How will people react when the federal government comes for your guns and you have one person willing to die for his belief and the 2nd amendment. And, he is killed by the federal government.

      You now see counties down south that are declaring themselves as 2nd Amendment counties and will not enforce state gun laws. Are they going to send in the National Guard. You have seen where whole units have agreed with protesters.

      What happens if farmers decide not to grow crops for one year. Or something disrupts that process. Remember we are the bread basket of the world.

      Geez! I could go on and on about this. This is a very interesting subject for me. And, to me it is not as simple as developing a matrix and letting the software do the work for you. Even with AI and algorithms predicating human behavior people always do crazy things. But, in the end I think that you will see the US break apart.

  20. I watched some if the other videos on his channel. There are some, concerning to say the least ideas that he is advocating for. Theres no way his terrible ideas would pass muster on their own. It’s clear, war to him is a means to precipitate the conditions necessary for him to rebuild the world in HIS ideal f’ed up way.

  21. All about the money. Once the left gain control. The floodgates will open. We will be lucky to take home 50% of our earnings. Even if the right is put back in the majority, it will be too late. BLM, antifa anarchist, gun control advocates, all convenient useful idiots for the left. They want control. Unfortunately, it’s inevitable. I’m afraid Americas best days are behind her.

  22. This is a condensed version…You can’t fight a war in an hour….But everything he said in this video is spot on accurate….Anyone who thinks it’s unrealistic, or can’t be done this way, and with this little effort is an idiot….who clearly have no understanding of warfare……I assure you anyone who actually knows about war…And there are a lot of us…Understand exactly what’s needed to do this. So only a fool would make light of it….This could, and very well might happen. Amd people need to understand this……..If people don’t take it seriously…Like the genius who started this criticism……and who clearly knows less than nothing about war….It will happen…..So you can believe the guy I’m responding to. But you do so at your own risk…..And believe me…it is one big ass risk. And as I am fond of saying, it might take a while for the wheel to turn all the way around….but stupidity is self correcting. And anyone who doesn’t take this seriously…….has a real good chance of having their stupidity corrected……The hard way…..Wake up people unlike the asshole who started this seems to believe…not everything is a debate…Trying to sound intelligent won’t keep you alive when the time for real intelligence comes around. Think about it. I’m one of those retired veterans.

  23. Those who forget history are doomed to repeat it.

    Throughout the history of man when the conflict has reached point where there is no longer any hope for a part of society, then the minority eventually are forced to fight for survival.

    It seems to me that the left wants to totally dictate their views on everyone and the right just wants to be left alone to live their lives the way they want to. This does not constitute violence BUT when finally pushed into a corner they either have to fight to survive or give up and accept a government totally opposite of their beliefs. When this happens then violence begins. Something will create a flashpoint where violence will occur and at that point the violence will escalate and civil war will begin.

    So think what you will but understand that “Violence is the last resort of the oppressed.”

  24. Balkinization seems a likely outcome. NY/New Amsterdam, Illinois/Lincoln,
    Wa/Liberty, Nevada/New Nevada, OR-ca/Jefferson…and so forth.

    This separation process is already happening socially, and to some extent: economically. If the new states do emerge under Article 4 constitutional state splits…then there will a new handful of federal senators. The new senators could tip the balance of US politics…. especially if they are conservative senators. That fact… will be the reason the Democratic side will fight state separations at all costs…. as they are presently doing now.

    The other outcome is continued decline, economic misery..and default of govt promises…in particular – default in entitlements. You will have the affordable care act benefits…but your in a long line to get services. You will get social security… but inflation will take your retirement purchasing power away.

    IRA’s and state pensions…are very much at risk under a Democratic/Marxist controlled govt. They will be needing funds..and yours will taken.

  25. While I agree with many points, both here and in the video (experience), I think what NO ONE is factoring in is this current HOAX – and the coming destruction of life, liberty, and any sort of ‘freedom’ (you cannot be free when a private bank runs your country under a usury system), facilitated by BOTH the Left AND Right.

    As Gerald Celente says; ‘When people lose everything, they lose it’.

    What then?

    Making observations based on a Normalcy Bias fails to take into account to the coming complete economic collapse of the US, with the ‘flu’ hoax used as a scapegoat.

    I began warning LAST August that we were close to a ‘New 9/11′, because the Everything Bubble was now unsustainable, but of course, I was laughed at, and told by a friend who is an ’emerging-markets’ investment broker/analyst that “everything is fine, there is no bubble, the Federal Reserve is our friend, and ‘my investments are offshore and safe…”

    He and his family will be one of the first to lose their $1.7million dollar home – and very liberal.

    ‘When the powergrid goes down’?

    Or when their lights go off for non-payment and the 99% – ‘a nation with a collective, room-temp IQ’, finally figures out just how patently obvious the lies actually were, how they were baited to ‘divide’, and everything has been STOLEN?

    What then?

    Or is this ‘Basic Income’ plan going to be what keeps the sheep quiet?

    Final thoughts?

    The ‘numbers do NOT take into account the absolute Betafication of Amerika, nor the FACT that, according to a military commander, ‘75% of the nation is un-draftable due to be so morbidly obese/out of shape”. I watch some ‘good ol’ boys’ gun vids, and these guys are out of wind slinging and unslinging a weapon with a mag’ change! lol….yea. Some OpFor – and are STILL clueless as to the hoax being played on them, and still think Trump is on their side and going after the Deep State.

    yeaaaaaaaa.

    Last – the destruction of the food supply in the midwest.

    We’re entering uncharted waters, where some of yours and Mark/RT’s observations will be applicable, but as an early ‘collapse video’ suggested;

    ‘What happens when a guy who just a few weeks ago was shopping the Mercedes site – and is now wondering where his next meal is coming from?’

  26. I think the govt issue cuts both ways. I think that while liberals might control most of the govt I think that there would be enough internal players to sabotage efforts to completely utilize the govt resources in a consistent way. I think another element is the sheer terror involved in guerilla warfare and bloodshed. It hardly matters who the public will blame when you consider that those who engage in such guerilla warfare aren’t in it to win a popularity contest or even to prevail in winning a civil war. What they would be dealing with is people who believe they have nothing to lose and would like just to take down the system in general. I also think that the right has thought well ahead in alot of ways and that seizure of assets by the govt won’t stop the major players who have anticipated this. I for one know people who have been stock piling massive amounts of armaments within the US for decades not to mention investing in gold and silver. We’re also talking about alot of people who would be able to live on very little so seizure of assets would hardly matter PLUS they have anticipated that based on what I’ve known of preppers. These are people who pride themselves on self sufficiency and living off the land. There is alot that is being planned and coordinated in ways that the public is truly clueless about. But the biggest factor would be the sheer chaos involved when even just .5% of the citizenry is actively engaged in sabotaging whatever and however they can. That is unprecedented in America. Right now it’s Antifa/BLM doing this. The Right hasn’t even started to engage. What will be the catalyst? Gun Confiscation of course.

  27. Pre-covid I would tend to agree with this retort of the video. However, now that we have seen state governments in action being dictatorial and restricting Liberties with bias an indifference to suffering along politcal lines–the jig is up. If electrical services, internet communications and bank accounts frozen people will know who to blame–government. So any suffering put upon Americans in response to a civil war will only make the cause for a takeover that much more appealing. The closer anarchists and communists get to the suburbs, the closer we are to conflict. Americans now own more guns and ammo because of covid tyranny & city violence. More liberal whimps are moving to red areas and a lot of them may have swallowed a red pill by now. Kind of tough to sip wine with bullets flying around.

  28. I would be interested to hear thoughts on this comment. When it comes to a second civil war I think If there is a small regional uprising that gains no momentum it will be over quickly. However I think if it becomes more of a national issue this will all boil down to one issue. Will the military/police engage and if they do deploy will they pull the trigger on flag carrying American citizens.
    There was so much talk in the article and other posts of the financial losses that people will fear and how that will be a huge factor for them in deciding whether to join in or not. I don’t think finances are going to matter at all after the first few weeks of an uprising. Look to Covid. In just a few days (of what will be considered a very minor panic compared to the panic of an uprising ) the store shelves were emptying. Money will no longer be considered the thing of value when there is nothing to buy in stores. It will be the basic human needs of food, water and shelter that will be the most important. A huge portion of the red in this country is rural and I don’t believe they will be shipping goods to the coasts and cities after the start of a revolution. Commerce will grind to a halt. China will certainly love it and stop all exports to us. The urban areas will become like third world war zones. I don’t think you will see anything close to it in the rural areas. Charlie Daniels Jr. said it well,” A country boy can survive”. I truly believe there are so many rural conservative people (male and female) who have been raised knowing how to hunt and handle firearms where the majority of liberals don’t know the first thing about guns and are snowflakes who will not be able to function if they have to do for themselves. At the first hint of danger the Hollywood elite and super wealthy liberals will be gone in a heart beat thinking of no one but themselves. Can you imagine LA, New York, Chicago etc.. with no resources pouring in. They will cannibalize themselves incredibly quickly. It will be total chaos where might makes right and we know who has most of the guns in the cities, the criminals.
    Back to the military. I think it all depends on whether the military/police will engage or not. I believe a HUGE number of them( black and white) are sick of the flag burning, disrespect for the national anthem and the anger being directed at them but are silently enduring for now. I do not believe they will support a far left government and will not engage the revolutionaries but most likely join them.
    I live in a small rural town on the water where we will EASILY survive with no walmart or grocery store. With the amount of cows, deer, ducks, geese , seafood, acres of farmland and most importantly kind loving Christian attitudes towards each other we will have no problem going on. Here black or white, yellow or purple rich or poor won’t matter. What will matter is are you a patriotic democratic American or liberal socialist. Please share your thoughts on this posts I would like to hear all viewpoints on the topic.

    1. Tom,

      I think you’re right about the military being the “linchpin” of this entire (and morbidly terrifying) prospect of civil war.

      I also agree with you that enough – maybe not a majority, but enough – of our boys and girls in the military would not go to war against their own people.

      I do think, however, that focusing on the military as a whole isn’t actually necessary.

      In today’s ultra-modern warfare, you don’t need an army to quell a rebellion. All you need are a couple of well-placed drone strikes that kill a few hundred of the revolutionaries, and you’ve essentially won.

      The psychological effects of a drone war would be brutal; whoever controls them has the power, if they choose to use it.

      This is especially true when most of the “revolutionaries” are not soldiers, but ordinary people simply trying to resist a tyrannical government.

      In a scenario in which the revolutionaries (in this case, the conservatives) or the military defectors could manage to gain a substantial level of control over the drone operating facilities, it is very possible that such a conflict would eventually end in favor of the revolutionaries.

      Without a strong, unified military and limited aerial firepower, the tyrannical government would be substantially weakened.

      At that point, it would only be a matter of time until, as you say, the major cities and metropolitan areas would cannibalize themselves while the rural citizens fared much better.

      In my belief, it all hinges on the ability of the revolutionaries/military defectors to gain control of the drone fleet. If this could be accomplished, I feel that they would have a very real chance at eventually winning such a conflict. It would result to siege warfare, but that type of war would favor the revolutionaries in this case.

      How likely would that be to happen? It’s hard to say. Either way, a civil war in the United States would be absolutely devastating and would fundamentally change our entire world as we know it.

  29. Here in lies the problem for me. People generally don’t like to be told what to do. ESPECIALLY Americans. If the left continues to push radical agendas and constantly shows that this is a power grab, defunding police and taking guns… I mean, they want to ban guns. They will say no, but they do. Who’s going to enforce these laws? They been shutting on the police for years now. And in my opinion they will push to far. But John Mark didn’t get it right. It won’t be infrastructure or power strikes. You will see archduke Ferdinand situations or British tax collectors. That’s how it will start. Think of the paralyzed country after Kennedy was shot. Now amplify that by 100 after senators and representatives with significantly less security start getting attacked. I hope I’m wrong. Truly I do. But I group of people that don’t truly care about discussing and listening to all sides and come to a mutual agreement will put themselves in a bad spot.

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