05 – 11 August 16 – SHTF Indicators Tracker 🔒

29 July – 04 August – SHTF Indicators

(Updated @ 1500 on 09 August 2016 – 5 Data Points)

An indicator is an observable or potentially observable clue about capabilities, intent, or a future event.  Our mission is to identify indicators in order to provide early warning of future events, identify the likelihood of future events, or identify capabilities or intent that could cause an emergency or SHTF scenario.

This is the long-form intelligence reporting of our EXSUMs.  If you’d like a summary and analysis of the intelligence reporting, see our previous Executive Intelligence Summaries.

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Priority Intelligence Requirements:

PIR1: What are the current indicators of systems disruption that could lead to a SHTF event?

PIR2: What are the current indicators of an outbreak of global conflict? (Russia, China, Middle East)

PIR3: What are the current indicators of military, government, political, or social-related instability or violence that leads to domestic conflict?

PIR4: What are the current indicators of economic, financial, or monetary instability that leads to civil unrest?


PIR1: What are the current indicators of systems disruption that could lead to a SHTF event?

Critical Infrastructure

Waste water spillage continues to be the number one threat to clean water, particularly after heavy rains.  Typically, boil advisories are issued until crews are able to decontaminate the water.  Cyber attacks and exploitation come in at second place, with ransomware attacks claiming the top trend.

According to Symantec, [a new malware tool] has been used for what could be state-sponsored attacks to infiltrate 36 computers across at least seven organizations around the world since 2011. Its targets include several individuals in Russia, a Chinese airline, an unnamed organization in Sweden and an embassy in Belgium. Kaspersky says you can add various scientific research centers, military installations, telecommunications companies and financial institutions to that list. (Engadget; 08 Aug)

“In a statement, Delta said it canceled more than 650 flights, or about 10% of its daily total on Monday. As of 3:40 p.m. ET, it said it operated 2,340 flights of about 6,000 scheduled to fly….” [Due to power failure.] (WSJ; 08 Aug)

“We’re highly dependent on (GPS) in pretty much every part of our economy and security, yet it’s very easy to disrupt… I think the general consensus is that any outage of more than an hour or two would be pretty unpleasant.”  Experts have been warning for years about the vulnerabilities of GPS, a global network of 36 U.S. satellites that provides timing data for a wide array of critical infrastructure, including telecommunications, the energy grid and financial markets, as well as everyday applications like smart phone mapping and ride-sharing services like Uber… The closest thing to official confirmation of a criminal spoofing incident came when a Homeland Security Department official said at a security conference in December that Mexican drug cartels were trying to jam and spoof GPS signals to interfere with U.S. government drones patrolling the border… “The bad guys on the borders have lots of money, and what they’re putting money into is … spoofing and jamming of GPS.” (NBC; 08 Aug)

Election 2016

Fifty of the nation’s most senior Republican national security officials, many of them former top aides or cabinet members for President George W. Bush, have signed a letter declaring that Donald J. Trump “lacks the character, values and experience” to be president and “would put at risk our country’s national security and well-being.” (NYT; 08 Aug)

Anti-Trump Republicans have proved, yet again, that they are nothing if not determined. Republican strategists are putting forth an independent presidential candidate, Evan McMullin, in a last-ditch effort to stop the GOP nominee. (VICE; 08 Aug)

Military

 

Terrorism

 

Espionage

 

Security/LE

Immigration


PIR2: What are the current indicators of an outbreak of global conflict?

NATO indicators

 

Russia indicators

A leaked British Army document reveals that Russian forces are improving their ability to combine their mighty tanks, artillery and other heavy weaponry with sophisticated electronic warfare.  Specifically they are honing their skills to jam enemy radio signals and render equipment like drones unusable.  The secret document concludes one of Russia’s goals in Ukraine is to practise “new methods of warfare as well as testing modern and prohibited weapons”. (Mirror; 10 Aug)

US, NATO, Russia signal de-escalation?

 

China indicators

 

North Korea indicators

Japan ordered its military on Monday to be ready at any time to shoot down any North Korean missiles that threaten to strike Japan, putting its forces on a state of alert for at least three months… Up to now, Japan has issued temporary orders when it had indications of an imminent North Korean missile launch that it has canceled after a projectile had been launched.  However, because some test firings are hard to detect, it has decided to put its military on standby for a longer period. The order will be reviewed after three months… (Reuters; 08 Aug)

Israel, Iran & the Middle East indicators

 

European Civil War

 


PIR3: What are the current indicators of military, government, political, or social-related instability or violence that leads to domestic conflict?

Political

Black Lives Matter

Anti-law enforcement

Military

Social


PIR4: What are the current indicators of economic, financial, or monetary instability that leads to civil unrest?

 

Recession

European economic problems

Italy’s highest court has given the go-ahead for a make-or-break referendum on the crisis-torn country’s constitutional future which could have huge knock-on effects for the EU. (ExpressUK; 09 Aug)

Dollar weakness & precious metals

 

Market sentiment

“The fact that the world, as a result of quantitative easing, has seen an asset inflation that benefited the uber-rich, and that nothing has been cured. One cannot cure debt with debt, by transferring from private to public sectors. The markets will ultimately crash again, although this time it will hurt a lot more people.”  (Yahoo; 08 Aug)

“We have a strange economy. Markets look like they’re fine. But underneath the surface, most stocks are not doing well. Most stocks around the world are down. Most stocks in the United States are down. In 2015, when the market averages were flat, twice as many stocks were down on the New York stock exchange as were up. And in the last nine months, earnings are down in the United States. A recession is starting, it is already in place. But if you look at the averages and the bond market, they still go up… It’s hard to say when the music will end. But it will end, and that’s when we can see a 75-80% drop in stocks.” (BI; 04 Aug)

Inequality leading to civil unrest

 

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Samuel Culper is a former military intelligence NCO and contract Intelligence analyst. He spent three years in Iraq and Afghanistan and is now the intelligence and warfare researcher at Forward Observer.

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