Breaking Down Civil War 2 – Part Three

 

In this video, intelligence analyst and Iraq/Afghanistan war veteran Samuel Culper breaks down another reason to expect Balknization of the U.S., and two ways to begin looking at strengths and weaknesses of competing sides of a conflict.

Samuel Culper is a former military intelligence NCO and contract Intelligence analyst. He spent three years in Iraq and Afghanistan and is now the intelligence and warfare researcher at Forward Observer.

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6 Comments

  1. First off, as a 26 year veteran of the DoD (civilian scientist) with an MS in National Security and Strategic Studies from the Naval War College, I have to say your series on Civil War 2.0 is spot on from an intelligence gathering and forecasting standpoint. My last job before retiring (to start a homestead in WV, BTW, which you mention a couple of times in your videos) was as CTO of the Marine Corps Warfighting Laboratory in Quantico, VA. A large part of my job was to forecast developments in commercial technology that could be integrated into the Marine Corps Combat Development System. (It was a stimulating but thankless job, I assure you.) Technology intelligence gathering and was a key part of that job and everything I learned echoes the approach you have taken to analyzing the key issues associated with CW2. I am impressed with what you and your team have been able to accomplish so succinctly in these brief videos.

    Secon, I have two questions. A couple of times you mention the possibility of legislatures in Red States deliberating over how much guff they’re going to take from the federal government if/when one-party Democratic (sic) rule becomes a reality, with secession or resistance on the table as a possibility. This suggests a model of states as unitary actors in the conflict over states’ rights in a (supposedly) federal system, whereas it seems equally plausible that many Red State legislatures are populated by a goodly number of political opportunists who mouth “Red State Voter” platitudes while being deeply invested in the federal status quo. Could you comment on how likely you think it is that even deeply “Red” states have the political will to resist the federal juggernaut once one-party Democratic (sic) rule becomes a reality?

    Second, have you considered (or are you considering) doing a video on the impact of rapidly emerging technologies (e.g., 5G, IoT, etc.) on the development and use of the information aspects of soft power? It seems to me there are a number of emerging threats and opportunities in that area that might influence assessments of the strategic landscape WRT CW2. Just a thought.

    Again, many thanks for your fine work on this series. I look very much forward to Part 4.

  2. I hope you also have something which is actionable that would cause a more optimal outcome, balkanized or not. What would it require, should people move? Or should we just go full Masada now and not wait for the imperial seige engine to come so we can be officially disarmed and enslaved.

  3. Samuel: After viewing part 2 of this series, a 2016 election color-coded map was shown that looked at the results from another angle by breaking down the red-blue by population density was just it? and reminded me of a Rorschach Test. Some additional detail/clarification vis-a-vis the more often map showing mostly blue coasts with red in between, would be helpful. I have neither social media nor utube accounts. Thanks.

  4. Excellent presentation. Much food for thought. Glubb book on order for study and library. Contrasting urban mountains to forested geo-mountains, interesting. Speed and Mass of deployment of Hard Power plus length of line of logistical sustainability compared to degradation of political Will to Fight of either participants in asymmetric situations seem at first glance a difficult calculus at the small team/individual resource level,but good history never-the-less.

    Thanks for the encouragement and the lessons.

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