Early Warning for 09 October 2018

warning

Good morning. Here’s your Early Warning for Tuesday, 09 October 2018. (All times Central.)

ADMIN NOTE: I’m back in the office this week and all daily reporting activities will resume.

HurricaneWatch: Hurricane Michael is expected to make landfall tomorrow along the Florida Panhandle in the Gulf Coast.

 

White House

The President is scheduled to have lunch with Secretary Pompeo, and then hold a Make America Great Again rally in Council Bluffs, Nebraska.


 

State Department

Secretary Pompeo is scheduled to have lunch with the President


 

Defense Department

Defense Secretary Mattis is scheduled to meet with Greece’s Minister of Defense.

Of Note: The Association of the United States Army (AUSA) annual meeting is this week. Dubbed as the “largest land warfare tradeshow in North America,” the annual meeting features top U.S. Army officials speaking on a wide range of topics. Significant reporting will appear in Thursday’s Strategic Intelligence Summary.

Deployments: The Wasp Expeditionary Strike Group is currently underway in the South China Sea. The Iwo Jima Amphibious Ready Group (ARG) is underway in the Atlantic to participate in Trident Juncture 2018 in Norway. Along with the Iwo Jima ARG are Marines from the 24th Marine Expeditionary Unit who will be joining 700 Marines already in Norway. Trident Juncture 2018 will begin on 15 October, but most of the exercise will take place between 25 October and 07 November.

These are the last publicly reported locations of these ships. Conflict requiring an aircraft carrier/carrier strike group not appear imminent.

The Carl Vinson (CVN-70) was last reported as being in port of San Diego.

The Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) was last reported as being in port at Norfolk.

The John Stennis (CVN-74) was last reported as having returned to port in Bremerton, WA.

The Harry Truman (CVN-75) was last reported as being in the north Atlantic after arriving in port at Portsmouth, England over the weekend. The carrier strike group will participate in the upcoming Trident Juncture 2018 exercise in Norway.

The Ronald Reagan (CVN-76) was last reported as being in the Philippine Sea.

The George H. W. Bush (CVN-77) was last reported as having returned to port in Norfolk.


 

Congress

Significant House Activity:

  • Nothing significant to report.

Significant Senate Activity:

  • Nothing significant to report.

* Only events pertinent to national security are listed.


 

Economy/Finance

A new Bloomberg model is showing that the next recession is more likely to occur in 12-24 months, which matches other expectations that a recession will occur around 2020.

 


 

Weather

HurricaneWatch: Hurricane Michael is expected to make landfall tomorrow along the Florida Panhandle in the Gulf Coast.

 

 

(This map is updated every Thursday.)


 

What I’m Looking at this Morning

Russia condemns upcoming major NATO exercise

VP Pence unloads on China

Half the world is now middle class or above


 

Notable Quotable

“Beijing provides generous funding to universities, think tanks, and scholars, with the understanding that they will avoid ideas that the Communist Party finds dangerous or offensive. China experts in particular know that their visas will be delayed or denied if their research contradicts Beijing’s talking points.” – Vice President Mike Pence

Samuel Culper is a former Intelligence NCO and contractor. Iraq(x1)/Afghanistan(x2). He now studies intelligence and warfare.

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