Early Warning for 16 August

Good morning.  Here’s what you need to know this Wednesday morning…

– On Tuesday, North Korean state-run media announced that Kim Jong-un would back off his threat to nuke Guam, as he’s decided to just observe the U.S. for the time being.  And he’s going to get quite a show as next week, U.S. and South Korean forces participate in Ulchi Freedom Guardian (UFG) 2017, the annual exercise that war games a conflict against North Korea.  In 2015’s iteration, North and South Korea exchanged rocket and artillery fire, so this wouldn’t be the first time that violence broke out during UFG… but it might be the last.  Some 28,000 U.S. military personnel are stationed on the Korean Peninsula, as more are arriving to participate in the exercise that starts Monday.

– For a couple months now, conditions have been tense between Chinese and Indian soldiers locked in a border dispute.  Several soldiers were injured yesterday during a melee between elements from the two nations, and some are worried about an escalation. [source]  In a speech marking India’s independence, PM Modi said, “Be it the sea or the borders, cyber or space – in all spheres, India is capable and we are strong enough to overcome those who try to act against our country.” [source]  Earlier this year, President Trump and Indian Prime Minister Modi met and are reportedly building a warm relationship centered on a shared concern about the growth of the Chinese military.

Each week, Monday to Thursday at 8am Central, I’ll bring you a new indicator of war, domestic conflict, or systems disruption. The intelligence analysts at Forward Observer believe that the next 20 years will be more costly, more risky, and more dangerous for Americans than the last 20. That’s the reason why we exist, and our work is why over 650 members currently trust Forward Observer to ‘stay out front’ on these threats.  Subscribe here.