Early Warning for Thursday, 05 November 2020

Good morning. Here’s your Early Warning for Thursday, 05 November 2020.

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TODAY’S BRIEFING:

  • Election update
  • McConnell to block radical nominations
  • Fed to urge more stimulus
  • Cities continue preparing for violence
  • Pro-Trump, anti-Trump protests break out
  • Far Left riots erupt in several cities

 

POLITICAL WARNING

ELECTION: Biden could declare victory as soon as today if Nevada is called in his favor. The campaign already launched its transition website, and is asking for donations for legal fights ahead. Meanwhile, the Trump campaign has lawsuits filed in Michigan and Pennsylvania. President Trump vowed to take the legal fight to the Supreme Court. Expect President Trump to push back vigorously if Joe Biden declares victory today. Several influential Trump supporters promoted rallies and protests to “get people in the streets” in support of the president. 

SENATE: As long as the GOP maintains control of the Senate, re-elected Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has vowed to not confirm radical, progressive nominees if Biden becomes president.

(ANALYST COMMENT: The greatest risk to national stability remains the Trump campaign declaring victory and acting on it, which will undoubtedly lead to mass protests and widespread violence. This could happen tomorrow, as Trump campaign officials have predicted electoral victory by then. Expect a significant escalation this weekend. Election results will be disputed regardless of outcome, which could lead to competing protests in battleground states. Given the uptick in unrest last night, the risk of violence remains high going into the weekend. Next week could be far more disruptive. The deployment of federal law enforcement has been largely limited to Washington D.C., while the National Guard is mobilized or remains on alert in at least 16 states. So far, there’s been no national disruption to utilities, public services, the economy, or the financial sector. In a worst case scenario, political activists target critical infrastructure, causing local, regional, or national disruption over the coming weeks. The National Stability Index shows emerging threats to government and the security situation, and persistent threats to economic stability. – S.C.)

 

ECONOMIC WARNING

FED: The Federal Reserve is meeting today, and watchers expect Fed chair Jay Powell to stress the need for additional stimulus. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) previously said that the next stimulus bill would wait until next year, but most recently said that he was open to passing a bill this year.

The information provided by Forward Observer in this report is for informational purposes only. It should not be considered financial advice. You should consult with a financial advisor to determine what may be best for your financial needs.

 

GOVERNMENT RESPONSE

SEATTLE: Seattle PD in a coordinated effort swarmed in on vandals from three directions in and broke up a protest. After dismounting bikes, they piled on the vandals and conducted arrests. 

MARICOPA COUNTY: Maricopa police were called to defend the election center in Arizona. A protest gathered in response to alleged counting irregularities. 

PORTLAND: The skirmish line was set up near the intersection of Taylor and 14th near the I-405 entrance.

CHICAGO: Chicago again raised city bridges as a measure to prevent rioters from easily entering the downtown area. 

 

LOW INTENSITY CONFLICT INTSUM

PRO-TRUMP: Trump supporters protested against ballot counting irregularities in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. Armed protesters appeared at the state capital in Phoenix, although protests have remained peaceful so far.

ANTI-TRUMP: Leftist and Black Lives Matter protesters turned out in Los Angeles, Philadelphia, Nashville, Seattle, Sacramento, and Minneapolis, among other cities, last night.

RIOTS: Hundreds of antifascists rioted in Portland and Denver last night. In Portland, activists smashed up businesses, vandalized ATMs, and a Catholic church. Rioters attacked police officers with fireworks, blunt objects, and other projectiles. Police arrested one antifascist armed with a loaded AR-15, ballistic armor, several magazines, a knife, and fireworks. In Denver, antifascists vandalized buildings, attacked police, lit fires, and deployed a “chemical fog” in the street.  In Raleigh, NC, a smaller group of antifascists rioted  and attacked police with fireworks and projectiles. All of these riots were highlighted by calls for ending the presidency, the state, and abolishing law enforcement.

(ANALYST COMMENT: Planned mass mobilization protests remain in a holding pattern until election results are announced. That is expected to change tomorrow, with unrest becoming more widespread heading into the weekend. We fully expect well-established, incipient insurgencies to move toward organized political violence as soon as the Trump campaign declares victory. – S.C.)

 

Upcoming Event Calendar

04-11 November: Week of Action (DSA/Antifa) (Salem & Portland, OR) 

07 November: Black People’s March on the White House (BLM) (Washington, D.C.)

07 November: Vancouver Solidarity (Ft. Lauderdale YLF) (Weston, FL)

14 November: Community March (HPNGC) (DFW, TX)

 

 

— END REPORT

 

 

S.C. indicates analyst commentary from Samuel Culper

M.B. indicates analyst commentary from Max Baer

F.C. indicates commentary from Fox Company reporter

 

Samuel Culper is a former Intelligence NCO and contractor. Iraq(x1)/Afghanistan(x2). He now studies intelligence and warfare.

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