Early Warning for Wednesday, 21 October 2020

Good afternoon. Here’s your Early Warning for Wednesday, 21 October 2020.

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TODAY’S BRIEFING:

  • Republicans turning on the President?
  • Voters could hold the President accountable on the economy
  • Not Buying It
  • Leftists map out Trump donors
  • Leftist create log of Portland area police
  • Armed Leftist group denounces elections and voting
  • Far Left Mutual Aid calls for move into smaller cities
  • SRA chapter conducts mutual aid
  • BLM riots in Rhode Island
  • Anti-fascists clash with federal law enforcement in Portland

POLITICAL WARNING

Republicans turning on the President?

As the election nears, more republican leaders are violating the taboo rule of crossing the President. In fear for their jobs, they have become more outspoken in their criticisms and less concerned about repercussions from the White House. (AC: With the vote for Justice Barrett due to slide under the wire before the election and polls indicating a strong defeat of the President, many Republicans are taking an every man for himself approach. They may think they have gotten all they can from this presidency. It’s unclear how that might come back to bite them if he wins. – C.H.)

Voters could hold the President accountable on the economy

US voters have begun to think differently about the promised “V” shaped recovery the President touted. For the first time since the pandemic started voters have begun to lose confidence in his ability to get the economy back on track. (AC: Some voters had expected the President’s business experience to manage the economy better even though he has been sharply criticized for his handling of the pandemic. President Trump’s promises of a vaccine being delivered before the election seem unlikely, the economy is potentially bouncing back too slow for some previous supporters. Many could decide to hold the President accountable at the ballot box. – C.H.)  

ECONOMIC WARNING

Not Buying It

Typical holiday season spending appears to be ready to take a hit as consumers avoid crowds and seasonal gatherings amid ongoing pandemic concerns. Halloween is still up in the air in many places, Thanksgiving is being warned as a super-spreader event, and Christmas may become more of a gift drop ship event–especially in states still in lockdown. (AC: The country is at odds well beyond politics. Masks have become a major debate and people are trying to decide how to gather family, especially the elders without putting them at risk. Supply chains are still not back together and holiday forecasting for goods was disrupted. Even if consumers decide to make purchases, it’s not clear that items will arrive before Christmas with the massive backlog of parcel delivery by the top three shippers and record cost of railroad shipping from western ports. – C.H.)

The information provided by Forward Observer in this report is for informational purposes only. It should not be considered financial advice. You should consult with a financial advisor to determine what may be best for your financial needs.

LOW INTENSITY CONFLICT INTSUM

Leftists map out Trump donors

Fox Company reports that Leftists have created a website that maps out donors to Donald Trump’s 2016 and 2020 campaigns. The site has a search feature to locate Trump donors by address, city, and zip code. (AC: Most political party donation information is publicly available through the Federal Election Committee (FEC) online database. But, the FEC does not provide the specific home addresses of campaign contributors. This is a concerted effort to gather further intelligence on and doxx political opposition supporters from Leftists. This type of mapping of political opposition could be used by a more established insurgency to carry out acts of coercion or political violence. – M.B.)

Leftist create log of Portland area police

Far Leftist chat room participants created and disseminated a spreadsheet of Portland Police Bureau officers with identifying information. The log lists publicly known information–such as rank and badge number. The log also includes the officers’ documented training and assignment to Rapid Response Teams (RRT), including with Long Range Acoustic Devices (LRAD). The log lists 227 officers so far, with 200 detailed entries including identifying information such as officers’ race, ethnicity, gender, physical description, observed demeanor, and even marital status. (AC: We previously reported that Far Leftists were calling for more organized doxxing of Portland area police that appears to be coming to fruition. A portion of the information can be found online through open sources. What is significant is that they are combining open source information with intel gathered on the ground such as unique physical identifying characteristics, observed demeanor, marital status, and their level of crowd control specific training. Further intelligence gathering and publication of officers’ home addresses, family members, social associations, and off-duty monitoring would be an indicator of even more advanced intelligence capabilities. – M.B.

Armed Leftist group denounces elections and voting

A southeastern chapter of the SRA denounced voting as an effective tool to combat alleged white supremacy and fascism. The chapter tweeted, “You can’t vote out fascism. You can’t vote out imperialism. Yelling ‘VOTE!’ at people is useless.” (AC: Far Left rhetoric denouncing the efficacy or security of the American electoral process seeks to undermine public confidence in peaceful democratic systems. Armed Leftist groups are likely using this to recruit members from disaffected populations fed up with normal political mechanisms who are more open to radical–and possibly violent–means of achieving change. – M.B.

Far Left Mutual Aid calls for move into smaller cities

An Illinois based mutual aid group called for Far Leftists in metropolitan areas to spread into smaller towns and rural areas. The group tweeted, “We really need more experienced abolitionists, anarchists and radicals from larger cities to come help build infrastructure in smaller cities.” (AC: The Far Left proto-insurgency has, so far, been largely reserved to major metropolitan areas such as Seattle, Portland, New York City, Louisville, and Washington, D.C., among others. Of note, Far Left violence and riots have erupted in smaller towns such as Kenosha, Wisconsin; Rochester, New York; and Lancaster, Pennsylvania but have typically fizzled out within a week–likely lacking the logistic support necessary for sustained unrest. Leftist combat service support elements, such as mobile kitchens, have been observed traveling from areas such as Seattle and Portland to Kenosha but their transportation capabilities were still notably limited. A concerted mutual aid campaign moving into smaller cities and towns would be the first step in building popular support outside of the aforementioned major cities. If successful, mutual aid networks could build popular support, laying the groundwork for more expansive rural logistic networks outside, and between, major cities. Beyond being logistic nodes, smaller cities could serve as safe havens for urban militants to evade law enforcement and develop their operational capabilities. Communications, firearms, tactical team, and bomb making training are just some of the possible activities. This is due to the fact that small town or rural governments have relatively exiguous resources to survey and counter such efforts. Sustained insurgencies around the globe often rely on a rural infrastructure to sustain operations against government forces. – M.B.)

SRA chapter conducts mutual aid

A chapter of the Socialist Rifle Association (SRA) in the northeast is running a winter clothing drive in conjunction with a local mutual aid specific group. The chapter intends to donate to a local homeless encampment. (AC: The Far Left continues mutual aid campaigns to undermine local government and build popular support. – M.B.)

BLM riots in Rhode Island

Hundreds of Black Lives Matter (BLM) activists rioted following the injury of Jhamal Gonzalves in a police-involved motor vehicle accident on Sunday. Rioters attacked police with bottles, rocks, and fireworks.  

Anti-fascists clash with federal law enforcement in Portland

Black block anti-fascists attacked federal agents and local police with projectiles at the Immigration Customs and Enforcement (ICE) building. 

Upcoming Event Calendar

22 October: Day of Action Against Police Abuse (BLM) (Louisville, KY) 

22 October: National Day Against Police (Aurora Copwatch, Denver Communists) (Aurora, CO) 

24 October: Anti-capitalism protests (Antifa) (Bellevue, WA) 

24 October: Trump/Pence Out Now (Refuse Fascism) (Chicago, IL) 

24 October: Trump Train Richmond (Richmond, VA)

31 October: The Modern Revolution (Insurgence USA) (Salt Lake City, UT)

— END REPORT

S.C. indicates analyst commentary from Samuel Culper

M.B. indicates analyst commentary from Max Baer

F.C. indicates commentary from Fox Company reporter

Samuel Culper is a former Intelligence NCO and contractor. Iraq(x1)/Afghanistan(x2). He now studies intelligence and warfare.

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