Numerous people have asked my thoughts on Virginia. I’ll do a YouTube video on it over the weekend. For now, here are some thoughts.
1. In the 13 December Watch Report, I pointed out that Virginia politicians had done some backpedaling on the concept of gun confiscation. I know the topic is still circulating in the news, but it’s not going to happen the way some people think it is.
There was that article about Governor Ralph Northam mobilizing the National Guard. (A state representative floated this possibility, not the governor himself. Still, it’s unlikely.)
Then there was that article about Governor Ralph Northam cutting off power and cell service during confiscation attempts. (Fake news.)
Then there was that article about Governor Ralph Northam bringing in U.N. troops to carry out confiscation. (Beyond Fake News™.)
There’s a LOT of disinformation out there.
2. Here’s what I think is most likely to happen…
The SAME THING that happened in New York and Connecticut — states that floated similar proposals and passed similar laws.
No mass confiscation. No National Guard (many of whom are likely AR-15 owners themselves). No cutting power and cell service for gun owners.
Yes, Northam has scaled back on confiscation, but only to introduce a gun registry scheme that few are going to comply with.
3. 2020 is an election year. No Democrat presidential candidate is going to risk his or her election based on a large number of civilians getting killed over their AR-15s (for now).
With the way pro-Second Amendment groups are organizing, they could build an incredibly violent insurgency in parts of the state. No politician wants to risk that (for now). (Mass confiscation can only come after firearms manufacturers are out of business, by the way. The number of AR-15s, spare parts, magazines, and other accoutrements flooding into the state would be massive.)
4. So I think 2020 will bring Virginia some new gun laws, which could very well be watered down by the time they’re passed.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Virginia rolls out a gun registry program, but I would be incredibly surprised if any meaningful number of Virginians complied. (Same as in New York and Connecticut.)
Democrats are going to keep on changing gun culture by propagandizing young people. If successful, they’ll eventually erode support for “assault weapons” and the gun community will get smaller. Meanwhile, the Democrats will ban the transfer of “assault weapons” through inheritance. That’s going to make confiscation less of a challenge when some citizens are selling back “assault weapons” themselves (peacefully).
The state is likely to impose civil and social costs for being a well-armed citizen. They’ll likely pursue some kind of “gun owner insurance” scheme and/or encourage insurance companies to write in gun-owner provisions that jack up the cost of keeping an “assault weapon” in the home. They’ll try to put gun manufacturers out of business, thus reducing the availability of “assault weapons.” The state of Virginia has to raise the costs of owning “assault weapons.”
These things are not only possible, but LIKELY in the future.
And, yes, I’m sure there will be an increase in red flags where the state of Virginia curbs Second Amendment rights of some citizens over the risk of “imminent threats.” The goal for the state is to characterize these enforcement actions as “common sense,” like targeting gun owners who pose a “clear and present danger” to themselves or others. The evidence of “clear and present danger” could well be manufactured (“anonymous tips,” etc.).
What’s uncertain is exactly how, when, and where pro-Second Amendment groups will react to red flag laws in the future. There very well could be instances where gun rights activists impede or attempt to impede extreme risk protective orders from being carried out. Those instances could lead to bloodshed.
So what’s more likely in the near future is the shooting death of a gun owner at his own home during a red flag search, which could initiate a cascade of political violence (i.e., The Boogaloo/The Big Igloo/The Hootenanny).
What’s unlikely in the near future is bands of masked law enforcement and/or soldiers going door to door, doing mass confiscation while your power and cell phone service is down.
The situation is still developing. And politicians know that the groundswell of peaceful pro-gun activism is backed up by something harder. That’s why in the near term they’re most likely to try and erode support for “assault weapons” and legislate them out of existence, as opposed to confiscate everyone’s AR-15s… for now.
These are my thoughts. I hope you’ve found them helpful.
Always Out Front,
Samuel Culper
Training: https://forwardobserver.com/events
FOTV: https://youtube.com/forwardobserver
FO Radio: https://forwardobserver.fm
Dispatch Podcast: https://apple.co/32J9vJ5
UPCOMING COURSES
11-12 JAN: Tactical Intelligence Course – Austin, TX
18-20 JAN: Tactical Intelligence Course + OPSEC/COMSEC – Nashville, TN
Your article is more realistic than the stupendous scenarios being published by some. The culture is definitely changing. More urban/suburban and less rural. Incessant indoctrination being conducted in public government schools of our children is producing compliant generations with a socialist mindset of the collective rather than individualism. I see it personally. In my circle of acquaintances there is an absence of those with whom I can ‘talk guns’ or hunting. We are a dying breed.
I agree. The Democrats will take whatever small victories that they can. In Virginia, they have total control of the legislature, but it only takes a handful of pro-gun Democrats to side with the Republicans to torpedo any new laws. For that reason, I think it is unlikely that anything too offensive will pass, but some things WILL pass. Our rights will slowly be eroded away over time. But the pro-2A groundswell is pretty impressive. There will be a huge (hopefully) rally on January 20 at the capital building in Richmond, and that will send a very loud message. Please, if you support the 2nd Amendment, SHOW UP AT THE RALLY! Even if you are from out of state, come anyway. That’s what the Democrats do – they bus protestors in from out of state, so why shouldn’t we be any different?
PLEASE HELP VIRGINIA!
FOR NOW……… I agree with your assessment. That being said, I don’t believe that firearms enthusiasm and ownership is decreasing. In fact, I believe the exact opposite is true. If the radical left were to gain solid majorities in the House and Senate, followed by a solid left wing presidential victory, those in power may well attempt the unthinkable. Firearms confiscation WILL be the ignition switch to the next Civil war. While such an act will be carefully planned out, the resistance will do the same. It will end within 72 hours, after several hundred or several thousand firefights, some pre planned, break out at the same time.
The Democrats have had a defiant attitude toward President Trump and his supporters for several years now, as they seem to be moving toward their own self destruction without realizing it.
I believe they will pass every anti-gun law they can, and as soon as possible, because they see the support for Trump growing, and they know they will be voted out during the next election cycle.
The one good thing that is happening out of all of this, is the people, and the Law Enforcement, (Sheriffs) are coming together, and working to Restore a Constitutional America…
gun “control” d-suckers will do anything
This was a straw man designed to map the reaction. It is important not to act without analyzing the players.
Bingo!. This is a beta test like Jade Helm to see if, how, why, where, when, who do what in response. Like a scientist applying negative external stimuli he knows the subject won’t like but needs to see if it still reacts in the suspected, same way before trying something else to get the desired effect.
I am just glad SOME gun owners are starting to wake up.
Overton window
Recall works.
We have the Alaska governer back-peddling on his B.S. agenda.
Laws governing recall in Virginia
Recall of elected official(s) in Virginia is made available through Virginia statutes. Unlike other states that hold recall elections however, when citizens have petitioned for a recall, it is then sent to the state Circuit Courts for trial.
Code of Virginia
Virginia is one of two states that provide for recall only though state statutes and not constitutional law, the other being Montana.[1]
Who may be recalled?
Code § 24.2-233 states that “Upon petition, a circuit court may remove from office any elected officer or officer who has been appointed to fill an elective office, residing within the jurisdiction of the court.”[2]
The Virginia Law Review in 1975, the year the recall statutes were enacted, noted of the law, “A single Code article now governs the removal of state and local officers, both elected and appointed, except those whose removal from office is specifically provided for in the Virginia Constitution.” The statute can be interpreted to generally mean all locally elected officials can be recalled. However, given ambiguity in the statute language, particularly in regard to court jurisdiction, it is unclear as to what extent the recall process would apply to state officers. There is no precedent of a Virginia state legislator or governor having faced recall, nor has the process been litigated in the courts. Removal of the Virginia Governor by impeachment is provided for in the Virginia Constitution.[1][3]
Recall reasons
Code § 24.2-233 states acceptable reasons for recall when it has “material adverse effect upon the conduct of the office” include:[2]
Neglect of duty
Misuse of office
Incompetence in the performance
Other acceptable reasons include:
Conviction of a misdemeanor relating to drugs
Conviction of a misdemeanor involving a “hate crime”
Petition requirements
The petition for recall must be signed by at least 10% of the number of people who voted in the last election for the office being recalled.[2] The petition must also detail the reasons for removal.[4]
Further applicable petition requirement for local recall efforts may be found in § 24.2-684.1. Potential petitioner should check with their local authorities for the most current and applicable regulations.
Trial process
After the petition has been submitted:
The officer subject to recall will receive notice.[4]
The officer’s position may be suspended.[5]
The attorney for the Commonwealth will represent the state.[6]
The official subject to a recall trial has the right to demand a trial by jury.[6]
The results of the trial may be appealed to the Supreme Court of Virginia.[6]
Filling vacancies
If an official is recalled, the general procedure is to follow the laws set out for filling vacancies under Virginia Code Title 24.2 – Elections. For instance, when Mayor James Holley of Portsmouth was recalled for the second time in 2010, it was the city council who was charge with appointing a temporary successor; if they had failed to do it the process would have been deferred to the courts.[7][8]
Once the citizens are accustomed to laws that infringe on their rights to “protect” them and that are merely “common sense” more harsh measures will follow. The question is who is working to counter these efforts?
Not the NRA. Certainly not the GOP. Not the big donors from Wall Street. You would think the gun manufacturers and ammo makers would rally but they are sacred of the Left.
The more they lick the feet of these alien overlords the worse the excesses will be. The Left does not care what you think. They know whatever you vote can be overturned in the courts. SCOTUS is a joke to them.
This will end in one way. When you have been defined as a deplorable and irredeemable, you better be prepared or you’re going to get a free trip to a camp with special showers,
I thought someone had beat me to this but it looks NOT to be the case. As for “what’s more likely in the near future is the shooting death of a gun owner at his own home during a red flag search” it has already happened, in Maryland I believe. Of course the knock happened in the very early AM, and the resident was shot dead. We have the old Soviet Union going on where it will take nothing more than say an ex girlfriend/boyfriend, co-worker, boss, someone at church that didn’t like what you wore to church last Sunday, someone at the library that didn’t like the book you checked out, etc just as children turned in their parents in the USSR, to have that 3 AM knock or simply the door bust open without warning.
So where is the YouTube video?
Interesting. Keep in mind Masked Coercive Statists (cops) ARE going door to door confiscating guns in Cali, Chi-town, NOLA, and others… a bit behind the curve. It is time to focus on the prime movers not the gun-thugs in the entry team.
Even in ‘nice’ Canada, a gun registry was set up and huge numbers including me, did not comply. In Alberta one company was offering to auger down and bury your guns, safely for you. Many just hid them wherever. Many millions of Canadian guns remained unregistered.
Some people were registering their nail guns, and other hand held tools, anything that had a serial number. There were also so many inaccuracies and errors that the data base was pretty much useless
The Harper government ended the stupid program and put it out of it’s misery. The current liberal government would like to bring it back because like all socialists they think they can do it better.
We still need to get a permit every 5 years to allow us to buy a gun, but long guns do not have to be registered. Handguns do.
If enough liberty lovers show up in Richmond to protest on the 20th for good media photoshoot; you can bet there will be a false flag. The opposition already has a lacky picked, maga hat and AR to leave at the crime scene and the best hollywood writers have written the lacky’s manifesto. NOBODY should show up, showing up, even it was safe gives the controllers legitimacy.
The Taliban does not go protest the presidents mansion in Kabul, they wait for the presidents men to travel to them. Seems like a winning strategy against 3 superpowers – British, Soviet, American. Why are WE THE PEOPLE sooooo f’ing dumb? Schools must be worse than I thought.
Samuel Culper, I am shocked that you could forget Northam’s cold bloodedness, as a doctor himself making on-air statements about about executing already born living breathing babies. He likewise will have NO qualms about SWAT teaming nonviolent Virginians’ homes, hoping to shoot some of them as “public warnings”. Did Bill Clinton feel any shame about shooting a mother out from under the baby she was holding at Ruby Ridge? Or burning down the Waco compound full of innocent adults and children? Northam, having spoken clearly and with authority about what he used to do regularly in his own medical practice, is cut from the same sociopath cloth. With the UN now advertising with British spellings in NY, for English speaking “Disarmament Specialists”, I hope you walk this article back.
Need to be careful with drones and 5G. IoT devices communicate with your smartmeter, wifi, or even phone. These send signals through your house, irradiating you. Then from there, the dense signals pass outside to waiting towers.
Many 5g towers have appeared without consent or local governments knowing their effects. You can buy EMF-blocking wire mesh or microwave (yes, this is the same frequency)-resistant paints,etc.. In conjunction with phones and WiFi (use wire only) 5G allows interior mapping of your home, using sonar-like waves to find walls, etc..
Privacy rights are being stripped and the tendency of all government is towards tyranny. The problem now is public-private alliances that allow government to get some anonymous spying/surveillance benefit while the tech company gets a pass on safety risks posed by the (partly satellite-based) technology in return.
Drone swarms are appearing. These will make resistance impossible, as one armed resident will be outnumbered and forced to surrender in a fully automated attack based on gun possession warrants written by treasonous Democrats friendly to the UN and Chicoms.
Not sure if they’ll knock first. Most likely, they’ll target any potential threats first, anyone who might resist the later takeover.
The threat is real but remember firearms are only one avenue of protection. An EMP could fry every system in response to the continued spying or poisoning by EMF radiation, so beware ripples of reaction. A directed energy weapon, 5G can be steered as a stealth means of targetting dissidents, who will be weakened and sickened, far less confrontational than going for the guns when we’re healthy.