Good morning, and welcome to the Global Situation Report for Monday, 15 April 2024.
- IRAN-ISRAEL EXCHANGE LIKELY OVER – FOR NOW: A meeting of the Israeli war cabinet split was on the timing and severity of an Israeli response, but the group has reportedly agreed on a course of action. “We will build a regional coalition and exact the price from Iran in the fashion and timing that is right for us,” Israeli war cabinet member Benny Gantz said.
- U.S. President Joe Biden over the weekend urged Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to “slow down” and “think carefully” about a response to Iran’s weekend drone and missile barrage attack.
- According to the Iranian Security Council, Iran has no further plans to conduct attacks against Israel.
Why It Matters: First, Israel remains the winner of this exchange, as they’ve effectively traded the killing of two Iranian generals in Syria for a thwarted missile attack. Second, this exchange is likely over for the immediate future. The Israelis don’t appear to be in a rush to retaliate, but multiple officials have implied that there will be an Israeli response. That response could be covert and occur in the weeks to come. Third, the most dangerous course of action remains that Israel follows through on its promises to strike Iranian territory and target Iran’s oil refineries. The next major risk is Israel’s pending operation in Rafah and the region’s response to possibly further displacement of Palestinians. – M.S.
- BRICS TO GET FORMAL PARLIAMENT?: Leonid Slutsky, the head of the Russian State Duma’s Committee on International Affairs, said that the Brazil, Russia, China, India, South Africa (BRICS) alliance could form its own parliamentary assembly.
- “At the modern stage, BRICS, as the most powerful integration bloc on the planet, is ready in order to obtain an independent parliamentary dimension. We will not guess what it will be, perhaps, the BRICS Parliamentary Assembly. We will not guess when this will happen. It is important that all countries and parliaments generally agree with this,” Slutsky said.
- Russia is set to host the 10th annual BRICS Parliamentary Forum in July this year and the annual BRICS Summit in October.
Why It Matters: Observers have speculated that BRICS could grow into a European Union-type governing organization. While I doubt that countries like India would want to hand over part of their sovereignty to a BRICS Parliament, formalizing BRICS policies through legislation could add legitimacy to the growing economic and diplomatic alliance. – M.S.
- VICTUS HAZE: SPACE FORCE ATTACK AND DEFENSE EXERCISE: The Space Force is launching Victus Haze, a first-of-its-kind exercise to practice identifying and responding to adversarial aggressive actions. It will involve Rocket Labs and True Anomaly, two private space companies.
- Victus Haze follows up on Victus Nox, a proof of concept for developing, testing, and launching a spacecraft in one year.
- The United States will control both halves of the exercise, demonstrating an identification, defense, and offensive capability simultaneously.
Why It Matters: A successful exercise could re-secure U.S. Space Dominance, a key method of deterrence for great power conflict. It may also lead to a declaration of Initial Operational Capability for USSF Space Warfare. – J.V.
- Global Rollup
- Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. confirmed on Monday that U.S. officials would invoke the mutual defense treaty if a Filipino soldier died due to a “foreign power’s” actions.
- China’s Ambassador to Pakistan is promoting a “holistic approach to national security together with Pakistan” under the Global Security Initiative (GSI) in response to the March 26th attack that killed five Chinese nationals. (This is likely to provide legal cover to an increased People’s Liberation Army presence to secure Gwadar port and be used to further promote the GSI to other nations. – J.V.)
- Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba urged the use of Patriot missile air defense systems in Poland to protect western Ukraine from Russian missile and drone attacks.
- Poland kicks off a brigade-sized military exercise near the border region with Belarus.
THAT’S A WRAP: This does it for today’s edition. Thank you for reading. If you know folks who would also like to receive this email, would you please forward it to them? We appreciate you spreading the word. – M.S.