May Update on the “Second American Civil War”

For a couple years now, I’ve described “low intensity conflict” as the doctrine which best represents post-Obama America.

I believe very few things said about the current “civil war” but here’s what I know to be true of our current domestic conflict:

1. It’s “low intensity.” Low intensity conflict (LIC) is the doctrine of war below the threshold of conventional war (tanks, troops, planes) but above routine, peaceful competition. Anything over 1,000 deaths a year from political violence would be classified as a civil war. That’s certainly a much higher intensity than what we’re seeing now. LIC is characterized by political, economic, diplomatic, and information warfare, along with low-level politically- or ideologically-driven violence. See here for additional examples.

Another characteristic of low intensity conflict, as we’ve seen throughout history, is a relatively small percentage of the population engaged in violence. It may only be one percent of an entire country ‘at war’ while another 5-15 percent support the violence, and 75+ percent of citizens are just trying to live their lives.

Those who disagree sometimes reply, “Go to your grocery store. Go to the bank. No one is at war with each other. Everything is fine. You’re making too much of this.”

This is not 1861 where up to 10 percent of the country is fighting each other on battlefields, and the effects of conventional war are widespread and devastating.

In LIC, historically, it’s only a small fraction of a country doing the fighting, and most people live among the disruption to go on about their business. Plenty of civil wars and domestic conflicts have looked like that, and that’s exactly what I’m seeing shape up in the United States. History proves that it’s entirely possible to have two or more competing groups at war with each other without dragging every last man, woman, and child into the conflict.

 

2. We’re in a “hot peace.” I certainly would not characterize America in 2016-2019 as being at “peace,” other than the absolute absence of outright war. The cultural cold war has turned hot; albeit at a very low level. If you ignore this, then you ignore reality.

The latest example is yesterday’s shooting in Denver, in which a transgender male opened fire on his classmates, reportedly in “revenge and anger.” That’s an extension of the ongoing culture war, and another indicator that the decades-long cold culture war is going hot.

Attacks against Trump supporters, antifascist violence, white identitarian violence, black identitarian violence, police-involved shootings and reprisals, the assassination attempt on Rep. Steve Scalise (R-LA) and other House Republicans during softball practice, the demonization/dehumanization of others based on race and class, which lowers the barrier to violence — ALL are examples of our multi-sided culture war going hot.

 

3. It’s very likely to worsen. The tectonic shifts in American culture have caused periods of political violence before. The Civil Rights movement, the race riots and unrest between 1968 and the 1970s, and abortion clinic bombings are a few key examples, but even those ‘conflicts’ eventually died down. Oftentimes, conflict is generational. One generation goes away, and future generations develop their own problems.

For current generations, I believe conditions are more likely to worsen before they get better because the culture war now includes more fronts that foment the anger and resentment that cause political violence.

The areas of every day life that have been heavily politicized, and the ways in which Americans can express identitarian anger and resentment (race, gender, class, politics, ideology; there’s plenty of overlap there), have grown over the past decade, thus leading to a higher potential for violence.

Not only has the number of cultural ‘battlefields’ grown, but identitarian anger and resentment — the desire to “get even” or exact punishment against others based on race and class — has become more acceptable. As political violence becomes more acceptable among the extremes, you’ll see more of it.

 

4. We could have just two to three years before we see routine, sustained political violence. For as long as I’ve been writing about LIC, I’ve warned of the effects of the next recession and financial crisis on the political and cultural climate. (I now believe that the next recession and financial crisis have an above average chance of happening simultaneously.) Class and race warfare, I believe, will worsen as we move through this period of economic and financial uncertainty.

High youth unemployment is a universal indicator of civil unrest and violence. What I’m seeing in America’s future are social bases charged by race, class, and/or politics, who also lack economic opportunity and the hope of a better life that comes with it. That may be because artificial intelligence has taken their jobs (or their parents’ jobs), or because they can’t afford higher levels of schooling (or because they lack an education altogether), or because unemployment is so high that there are just not enough jobs to go around. Maybe it will be all three.

What concerns me — and, again, I don’t see any of this as imminent, but I do believe it’s coming over the next few years — is what I see as a convergence of a ‘perfect storm’ scenario with radicalized social bases, a dim economic outlook and loss of hope, political leaders who give a green light or at least tacit approval to political violence, and a belief that violence is the preferable solution. These prerequisites for organized political violence are developing.

 

What a time to be alive.

 

Always Out Front,
Samuel Culper

 

P.S. I’d be happy to be wrong. If you disagree, please let me know why in the comments.

Samuel Culper is a former military intelligence NCO and contract Intelligence analyst. He spent three years in Iraq and Afghanistan and is now the intelligence and warfare researcher at Forward Observer.

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53 Comments

  1. Could not agree more with your assessment. This is something that myself and many many of my friends acquaintances and Co workers have discussed over the past 30 years. This storm has been brewing a long time and has gathered steel as the years have gone on all fueled by the very issues you have sighted. This is the classic divide and conquer technique. I’m addition anyone that truely believes this is not the case clearly has not studied history. As we used to watch the news about Muslim terrorist acts over seas the influx of Muslims in America will bring about conflict and violence in our streets. I used to be more moderate but the Muslims make it very clear their ultimate goal is a Muslim America. This is only one example but all the other issue you mentioned are spot on.

    1. Don’t worry, if it wasn’t the Muslims to hate on simpletons will find something else to hate. These writers that produce these hit pieces are fake Christians. Christians don’t go around hating on people. This more than anything tells me American Christians are apostate. Repent Jesus is coming

      1. Christianity is a bastard religion, the combining of the worship of the evil false god of Abraham with the teachings of Jesus.
        Very sad

      2. What a naïve tool you are. You don’t know anything about Islam. I studied four years of classical Arabic, and lived over there for nine years. You have no idea what is coming with these people.

        1. My multiple experiences in the Persian Gulf certainly affirm your more extensive experience and knowledge. STILL, you might want to reconsider honey works better than vinegar when you’re trying to attract others to your point of view.

          1. The three evil Abrahamic Religion fighting over how to worship the same evil false god.
            Pure madness!

          2. I came to the same conclusion some years ago. Of course ‘madness’ is a human specialty.

          3. The age of the evil false god of Abraham is coming to passing away.
            When his reign of terror ends so will the madness.
            Share this message.

    2. Mr Culper. Would like to see the data that causes you to believe a recession and financial crisis may happen simultaneously. Want to compare it to some observations I have made. That kind of market stress can exacerbate an LIC.

      1. It’s a simple line of reasoning. $9 trillion in corporate debt, fueled by low interest rates. Large enough that the Fed chairman is warning about it. Economic downturn, corporate earnings recession, inability to finance new debt for bridge loans, inability to refinance old loans, etc. Could mean corporate bond/debt defaults. Definitely means layoffs and restructuring for profitability. It’s not a 100% thing, but it plausibly, if not likely, will affect U.S. companies with high debt. You think the Fed is going to do Bailout 2: Electric Boogaloo?

  2. I keep hoping Samuel Culper has got it all wrong. Having spent most of my Army-Air Force career in various Special Operations fields, not to mention a tour in our national-level Intelligence Community, and a Low Intensity Conflict posting in the Pentagon, this ret. senior officer claims to have some credentials on this subject.

    Too bad for my hopes re: Mr. Culper, as I can find no differences worth mentioning between our views. One thing that will most likely expedite his 2-3 years-from-now estimate of calamity, will be the war with Iran I am expecting this year.

    I read this posts intently, and with gratitude for his insights.

  3. “We could have just two to three years before we see routine, sustained political violence.”

    What does “routine, sustained political violence” look like? Are you defining that as conducted by organized groups targeting specifics cultural centers, icon’s, etc?

  4. What a time to be alive indeed! The 2016 election saw a new level of ‘violence’ here in Upstate NY. Not physical violence, but lawn signs disappeared at night, groups would openly brag about how many signs each stole that week, antenna snapped off the car roof, bathroom tissue strewn through trees and shrubs, decent people afraid to put a bumper sticker on their car for fear of vandalism damage to it, not to mention being screamed at and thrown the finger just driving around. Fortunately the house sold this week and we’ll be moving to a more western state which I believe will have a low probability of LIC for some time, where demographics are favorable, and an entire state’s resources used and enjoyed by well under a million residents. And pretty much most people are armed. You can relax, Samuel…we find nothing to disagree with!

    1. I have refrained from any display of a political nature because I’m afraid that If I were attacked I would end up with legal problems arising from defending myself.

  5. What are the predictions about a hot revolt should Democrats successfully nullify the Second Amendment and carry out raids to confiscate weapons from non conforming citizens ?
    Might this be more likely than civil unrest due to employment or economic conditions?
    Add the potential for UN troops, or other foreign forces to be requested to aid federal forces in the forced confiscation of firearms. Note that Obama planned to use Russian Spetsnaz troops in the US for anti terrorism missions. I’m certain Democrats would label non conforming gun owners as Terrorists.

    https://thecommonsenseshow.com/activism-radio-shows-war/deep-cover-source-reveals-8000-russian-spetsnaz-troops-poised-attack-american-infrastructure

    1. I believe there would be no “door-to-door”. I can think of at least a half dozen ways to encourage people to comply; all of them non-violent and “voluntary”.

  6. I would say that the LIC has been going on for fifty years, since the hippie movements and the racial chaos of the 1960s. Certainly, the level of violence back then was greater than it is today (though I’ll admit that violence seems to be ramping up lately… cf. the Steve Scalise shooting).

    What is different today — and this is a point that Culpeper does not mention — is that there is an expectation that we can’t vote our way out of this any more and that the next time the Democrats control the White House and Congress, they will implement an agenda hitherto unthinkable within the confines of “normal” American politics, and they will cram it down the throats of traditional “Americans” with as much government violence as it takes to do so.

    The government rarely used violence in the Sixties against the hippies and the radicals, and in the cases when it did — Chicago, Kent State, Detroit — the freaks were actually rioting in the streets. They were generally left alone by the government if they kept their radical behavior private.

    It is generally understood today, however, that these radical counterculturalists, who have now become mainstream and now control literally every institution in American society (including the military) will be far less genteel toward dissenters than the “Establishment” was to them back in the Sixties. Nothing will be private any more. Digital technology, social media, and ubiquitous surveillance will make COINTELPRO look like child’s play by comparison. Every dissenter will be labeled a “terrorist,” every gun owner will fear the SWAT team rolling up in an MRAP at 3 a.m., and every employee will fear losing his livelihood for accidentally “misgendering” some tranny freak or making a drunken impolitic social media post a decade ago. Illegals and minorities will be treated with kid gloves while the mock and spit on taxpaying whites.

    Sooner or later people are gonna snap back in a big way when they start doing that shit.

  7. We’re certainly on the trajectory, as described in your article. And if the millennials aren’t sufficiently entertained they could become a troublesome collective. But the great awakening could change everything, and if enough cross over to the light, other than some pockets of violence here and there, things could turn out better than we think. Prepare for the worst hope for the best

  8. I hope you are right. A LIC is much more preferable than a HIC. I am pretty old and my knees won’t put up with me thinking I can tote around a 80 pound ruck plus guns, knives and another 40 pounds of ammo, just to spar with the enemy for weeks on end.

    No, I have been thinking more along the lines of participating with more stealth and taking my selected objectives out at my pace.

    Mentioning “selected objectives”, the parent(s) of the child shooter in CO need to be snuffed. What decent parent would allow their child to “decide” to change sex at an age known as “Tween”? And I read your PC reference to the child by calling her a “him”. She has not had her addadictomy yet, she is still a female, despite what her parent(s), the school or any other twisted commie wants her called.

    Just imagine the LIC scenario where the girl shooter’s parent(s) is going about their shopping and they pass some old man in worn work clothes, slightly smelling of urine, and as they pass the old man, he turns and puts three 22 calibre bullets into the skull of the Parent. No one heard nothing. No one saw nothing.

    The old man just mentally “notched” his 105th successful commie elimination. And there are close to 100,000 just like him. The numbers add up. If every one of the LIC shooters on our side (the 100,000) took 100 each, that number is 10 million dead commies.

    That can boggle the mind.

  9. A good article,seems unfortunately to becoming a much more common topic which suggests to me more folks waking up/powers that want to be trying to kick off violent insanity.

    I do though disagree with 2nd civil war,we have (in my opinion)never had a nation wide civil war but 1861-1865 a war of succession.I believe a large group of folks(perhaps majority)just want to be left alone.

    I do agree nation wide violence kicks off large scale really doesn’t matter what you call it,will just be very ugly.

  10. It’s by design. Our governing class endorses it and wants to see it come to fruition. A governing class can not long exist with a strong middle class. We have the means to resist them and call them out on their crap. We all agree, I think, that the middle class is being decimated. This I believe is also by design. I have never heard a politician not extol the virtues of the middle class and that they are here to help! If they are all in agreement, why is it shrinking so much? Could it be that the policies they create are crushing us? I don’t believe this to be tin-foil, it is by design, and it is brilliant. Make folks poor, and we are too busy in our drudgery of daily survival to worry much about what is happening in far away Washington. Pit the classes against each other, let them fight it out, they come off as the shining knight swooping in to save everyone after a reasonable amount of death and destruction has occured. When those conditions are met, they can do pretty much anything they want and the plebs (me) will thank them for it.

    This is not a tyranny of one, it is a tyranny of 545. I love Orwell’s statement: If you want to see the future of humanity, imagine a boot stomping on a human face – forever.

  11. I do not fear domestic kinetic action in defense of our constitution from domestic enemies. What I DO fear is the LACK of domestic kinetic action when such action is vital in preventing the loss of our Constitution (country) and the most certain torture, misery, and Orwellian hell that will be unleashed on my children and grandchildren.

    That is why I suggest every patriot have a bare-bones doctrine to implement with other patriots, based upon the original Constitution with only its original ten amendments, that will create a universal but vital systematic method of re-establishing civilization once the kinetics are done with.

    If everyone had an internalized sense of such an organizational doctrine, then there would be far less problems determining the trigger zone on when to go kinetic.

    1. Bullshit! You paint a scenario where patriots are victorious in a matter of days or weeks, aprroaching an all out CW as some kind of 9-5 job. Kill your quota of commies, when the whisle blows, get in your car, drive home, kiss the wife, ask what’s for dinner, plop down on the old barc-a-lounger and watch the ball game. In the ACTUAL scenario, you’ll have NO home, job, money, health care, food or a place to defecate. Winning a war or even a battle requires organization, discipline, and a chain of command. You willing to, without question, obey the orders of some ass hole you don’t even know? Side by side with your comrades fighting for your cause. You got a AR 15, the guy next to you has a 30-30, other guy has a 30-06, next guy’s got a tricked out 2000+$ 1911 that jams every other shot. What happens when one of you runs out of ammo. You gonna call time out. Remember, society is gone. You know how to make a fire without matches? In the rain? Watcha gonna have for breakfast? What if you get a toothache, broken arm or, what if your comrade in arms has a heart attack or a stroke? Know how to properly dress a wound so infection doesn’t occur? If it does occur, do you know how to amputate? I think my point is made. Sweet dreams.

  12. In 2020 it will all unravel…

    If President Trump wins AGAIN… the left will be out for blood. IF the Demorats take over… it will be , in their eyes pay back to the Christian gun loving crowd. They will try to roll over all Americans with Taxes and gun control. Besides the economy going south. Southern border will be declared open and come one come all. Just do not camp on the Democrats yard. But ok for all other yards. no matter what party gets in… expect trouble. To what level??

  13. Looks all right, even to me. Though 2-3 years sounds long…after all we know there’ll be a big crunch next year, to prove The Donald caused it.

    Well past the time to ever flatly reject “immInent” anyway, IMO.

  14. The American historian Stephen Ambrose near the end of his life was being interviewed by a reporter from the New Orleans newspaper The Times-Picayune about the after effects of the Civil War on the country.The reporter asked him if he thought this country could experience another civil war. His answer was yes. He said if this country ever elected a black man President his tenure would be so divisive that a civil war would be inevitable. Stephen Ambrose died in 2002.

  15. You did away with your Christianity. You let the Left control the dialogue. You allowed their cheating. You ignored their hypocrisy. Stared at their sodomy but did nothing. Succumbed to their immigration policy of a peace invasion to be acceptable.

    Now you’ll have a war at your hands. You’ll be fighting your neighbors on your soil instead of country way yonder.

    But that’s the Left for you. With your support, of course.

  16. It’s all about trust, openness and optimism…and the long-lived fad that raised them to pathological extremes during the last 40-50 years.

    In 1981 bond prices bottomed, ending a 35 year bear market. Bull and bear markets come and go, and the only consistent theory holds that they’re manifestations of mass psychology, nothing more, operating at a pre-conscious (herding behavior) level in people.

    From 1981 on, owning debt was very profitable. Because markets for intangibles do not obey Econ 101 supply-demand models, as prices rose for debt, MORE debt was demanded, so willingness to borrow (by Congress, corporations, consumers) skyrocketed. A veritable OCEAN of debt was created as interest rates, the inverse of debt prices, fell to zero.

    Imagine the weight of your backpack is the cost of interest payments, and the volume of it is total debt. As rates fell, the volume expanded exponentially but its weight stayed low. Pension promises, expansions of “entitlements,” the Welfare system, and a vast labyrinth of industries grown FAT under the artificially amplified demand of “borrow-to-spend” all represent things that depend entirely on the ability to stand the weight of your backpack. But as the value of debt appears to have entered a bear market, interest rates creep higher. However, their effect applies to every cubic inch of your backpack, which was bloated beyond belief these past 38 years. Even tiny increases in “i” have astronomically amplified effects on the burden. All roads lead to a collapse in the wealth-value of debt, and when money = debt and debt = wealth, financial ruin (and social strife) appear but a question of time.

    All this rested (and rests) on collective trust, the same as does consent to exporting industry and opening the borders to tens of millions of migrants (legal and not.) Tolerance for the intolerable also rests on this.

    None of it is in the control of politicians, Wall Street or anyone else. It is a natural rhythm, and our recent experience is that of a rare, at least once-in-300-years mania. The last such event were France’s Mississippi Scheme and England’s South Sea Bubble, from back in the early 18th century.

    When it ends, the value of debt will evaporate with all the collective trust required to sustain it. Suddenly will people awaken, Rip Van Winkle-like and discover they are rubbing shoulders with people who they utterly loathe. It will be like an implosion nuclear bomb, where the U-235 is already compressed into a critical mass.

    Watch the bond market. It’s probably THE proxy for the timing.

  17. Factor in the Grand Solar Minimum which is just getting started, and it’s effect on growing seasons and thereby food production (look at planting status in the US and around the world right now), and what you have is a shit show beyond anything in historic memory.

  18. I would agree with your analysis and I was warned 14 years ago that after 2020 things would really start to get ruff for those of us who choose God and Jesus the Christ. Prepare for hard times.

  19. Know you enemy: Moloch and Ashtoreth

    Thought this pertains for those who disregard the spiritual aspects. Pay careful attention to the relationship between those being worshipped. There is a pattern. From:

    http://www.scifiwright.com/2019/05/moloch-and-ashteroth/#more-23404

    “Just because they aren’t deliberately, knowingly, worshiping Moloch doesn’t necessarily mean he’s not receiving worship.”

    “But he’s not real! One of the false gods!”

    “False god, yes. So a demon.”

    She ended up flabbergasted, but unwilling to discard my statement because, first, I’m her husband and she honors me, second, she found it horrifically plausible once she thought it through. She ended up doing some research, and then this morning, told me the obvious (which I had known, but had never put together): Moloch’s consort is Ashtoreth, who is as intimately associated with extreme sexual immorality as Moloch is with child sacrifice.

    Pray for those of the faith that are asleep that they, we, may be truly aware of the full scope of the spiritual warfare that rages about us. Once we are awake to the clamor of battle, we can become armed and armored, and wade into the fray. For though we may lose battles here on earth, we have solid assurance that the war is already ultimately won.

  20. The left views islam as the means to use, in order to destroy the United States. They promote it through ‘multi culturalism’…the atrocities it commits be damned and will not let it be stopped through freedom of religion…again, the atrocities it commits be damned. Somehow this same left, feels they will have a ‘seat at the table’ with the muslims. They are painfully ignorant, that they too, will be subjected to the dismantling.

  21. You’re absolutely right. But you’re missing the root cause of mass unemployment. It’s inflation. By that I mean theft of spending power by the banking class. There was once upon a time when a family didn’t need to work much less have more than one income to maintain a household. Gold and silver ensured people could save fora rainy day and retirement. And when we had land patents before titles there was no such thing as property tax. Your land was your land. This usury system is the root source of 90% of our troubles.

  22. > Anything over 1,000 deaths a year from political violence would be classified as a civil war. That’s certainly a much higher intensity than what we’re seeing now.

    Have you accounted for racially motivated crimes against whites? If you observe closely you’ll notice that the racial motivation is often hidden or buried by the media and the jewdiciary system. Take a look at for example Colin Flaherty’s research sometime.

    One could argue that the continued inaction re the opioid crisis (mostly affecting whites) should also be included. This would far surpass the 1k per year threshold.

  23. I was born and raised in South Africa. I’ve lived in America for 23 years. I warn those who want to listen, to look at SA. The farmers are being killed by the day..The world thinks it is a lie. Ideologically-driven violence happens every day.
    Just last week the EFF and ANC had a fist fight in parlement. The different races fight each other, they are supplied with arms from abroad, (my opinion) and the white minority gets killed in the cross-fire – Which works out well for all the waring parties, especially the communist-backed EFF – ( in my opinion our Antifa) So yes, I subscribe to the pipeline course, and I listen to Samuel. I’ve seen all of this before, it’s the same pattern. To me, this country is the last bastion of freedom. If America becomes lawless, like SA, where do we flee to then?

  24. I should add, for now, the violence is not organized as in a civil war, it’s scattered and unorganized, but tensions are mounting so much between the groups, which makes me think the race war will become more organized, and then there will be those caught in between.

  25. I’m a former Navy officer that was involved in military intelligence for a number of years. I have been personally involved in LIC. That doesn’t make me an expert, but not a noob either. I’m not saying anyone is wrong here, I’m just giving another perspective.

    I’ve lived through predictions of the breakdown of our society for six decades. There was the threat of the Soviet Union, nuclear war and clandestine operators undermining society. Then there was all the Black Power and anti-war turmoil of the late 60’s, which I can say was a lot worse than anything happening now. Then there was the Communist terror threat, like the Red Brigades, etc. Then the Islamic threat, which is still going on. We have had multiple economic downturns and multiple changes of political party dominance, but the political pendulum has always swung back. The Republic has survived. The economy, despite setbacks, has thrived. There has been no SHTF, except a few temporary, very localized events like Katrina.

    Now, I admit, anyone predicting SHTF COULD be right, at any time, just like people who predict that an asteroid will hit the Earth and wipe us all out could be right. But historically, they are PROBABLY WRONG. It is very attention-getting, click-bait to predict catastrophes, but it is more likely that history will repeat itself. The ship of state constructed by COTUS is pretty self-righting.

    Further, the minor catastrophes we have had were never predicted correctly by experts. And that is logical. If a consensus of experts could predict that kind of stuff, they would prevent it from happening, or at least get us prepared for it. As the saying goes, “It’s the one you don’t see coming that gets you.”

    I’m heartened by multiple signs and research that the generation that will follow after the millennials, Gen. Z, is predicted to be much more centrist and more practical. They are likely to see through the BS forced down their throats by their parents and go their own way. They will be somewhat socially liberal, but not radically so. They will, however, be very fiscally conservative.

    Will there be conflict? Sure. There always has been. But the Republic will likely stand and the pendulum will swing once again.

  26. Simple to forecast by watching what the billionaires are doing. Hobbyist flight trackers are up on the behavior of the 1% more than anyone.

    How much time do people like Bezos, Musk, Gates spend in the US? If they aren’t anticipating another civil war, I’d have to trust their judgement because they are privvy to a lot more information than most any of us are (though that is not to downplay intuition and logic).

    All the world’s a stage. This whole phase could just be a set up to install a new form of technocratic government based on UBI, social credit, cryptos. There are few accidents in politics.

    1. Man is not omnipresent, omnipotent or omniscient. There are generational patterns in history, so it really isn’t hard to predict the future of your not listening to oligarchs and other mass deceiver’s.

  27. I am 64 years old and have never seen our political parties act this way. The parties have always wanted the same thing for our country in the long run, what’s best for the republic, but wanted to achieve in different ways. This is no longer the case. Hatred now drives one political party beyond respectable behavior to push our country into socialism while the other side is trying to preserve a not so perfect democracy. The hatred of some in leadership has lead them to have no boundaries in their efforts to destroy our current president and everything that we believe in. When we are told, and many believe, that facts and truth are no longer required or valued and that any single event has two versions of the truth, it only leads us down a path where we loose trust in each other. Lies, disrespect, hatred and deception will lead us all down a path that ripens or society for inter conflict. We the American Citizens must decide before the decision is made for us.

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