Today I want to share with you some thoughts from a book I’m reading entitled The Fractured Republic.
In the beginning of Chapter Two, Levin nails the difference between the “Golden Era” of 1945-1963 and today.
Americans on both the Right and the Left have a sense of nostalgia for the Golden Era. It was a simpler time, many say, where Americans enjoyed better living and greater security.
The Golden Era, Levin writes, “enjoyed relative cultural cohesion, low economic inequality, high confidence in national institutions, and widespread optimism about the nation’s prospects.”
Today, we lack cultural cohesion. We’re a multi-ethnic and multi-cultural society with a substantial political faction dedicated to dismantling the historically dominant power structure. It’s already leading to conflict.
Today, we have high economic inequality. The Federal Reserve policy of low interest rates and cheap money, along with their dedication to re-inflating home prices and the stock market, has led to record wealth creation by the nation’s richest people… all while our country’s immigration policy has imported millions of poor, low skill immigrants who drag down wages for America’s working class citizens. Of course we have inequality — the political class encouraged it.
Today, we have low confidence in national institutions. The scandals emanating from the Justice Department and the IRS show how these institutions often become politicized to ‘reward our friends and punish our enemies.’ Many Americans have simply stopped trusting government to ‘do the right thing’ and it’s no surprise. Regardless of which party wins the 2020 presidential election, roughly half the country will be angry and resentful.
And do we, today, have widespread optimism about the nation’s prospects?
America is losing its place as the economic, cultural, military, and technology leader of the world — something that’s actually been decades in the making. This decline is going to have profound implications not just for national security, but also for the standard of living and quality of life for Americans.
The economy is undoubtedly booming right now, but we know there’s going to be significant trouble ahead.
The federal government is facing a $183 trillion shortfall over the next 30 years for social security, medicare, medicaid, and general budget deficits. The money will come from your wallet, it will get printed, or it won’t get spent. Any of these choices is going to have serious economic and social implications.
This is that ‘perfect storm’ scenario and we run the risk of these trends crashing together soon.
I just finished re-reading The Fourth Turning.
This book was written in the 1990s, and the authors predicted that we would enter a conflict phase of the generational cycle in the mid-2000s, which would culminate in the early 2020s.
That time is now here.
And the authors, all the way back in the 1997, wrote something so simple yet so profound:
“It’s time to trust our instincts. Think seasonally and prepare. Forewarned is forearmed.”
I’ll be making a major announcement soon about the future of Forward Observer and some cool things we’re launching this month.
It’s indeed time to ‘Think seasonally and prepare’.
I’ll have more soon. Until next time…
Always Out Front,
Samuel Culper
