Two big reasons to prepare for 2020

The wife and I have a date night tonight to watch the first Democratic presidential debate. It will consist of her drinking wine and me yelling obscenities at the tv.

It will at least be instructive to see how Democrats respond to criticism of being too far Left or far too Centrist. That’s the central debate for Democrats in 2020 — not who is the best candidate, but who can actually beat Trump.

The candidate with the most convincing case is likely to win.

We’re just about 12 months from the Democratic nominating convention and 16 months from Election Day.

President Trump at this point has to be the favorite to win. According to Vegas, Trump has even odds. A handful of billionaires I follow say Trump has above average odds. Plus he has the incumbent advantage.

And I occasionally come across a Democratic strategist who says he or she is worried about what Trump 2020 campaign manager Brad Parscale is doing with social media ads. Apparently, Trump 2020 is out to an early and heavy start. That worries some Democrats who feel they’re falling behind because they don’t have a nominee.

There are two big things we have coming up in 2020 that deserve our attention, with regard to ramping up our level of preparedness.

1. The first is the 2020 election. I’m particularly concerned because those who see Trump as illegitimate may be tempted to do illegitimate things to prevent his re-election.

According to one researcher, Big Tech (Google, Facebook, etc.) could sway up to 15 million votes through online censorship and algorithm manipulation. That’s certainly enough to throw an election and perhaps no one has more on the line than Big Tech.

And then there’s the possibility of a contested or failed election. Like 2016, that’s among why worst case scenarios because a solution could take weeks or months to implement, and the outcome will necessarily inflame tensions for at least one half of the country.

2. The second thing we should consider is the possibility of a pre-election recession. Right now, our Recession Matrix clearly shows expectations for a recession in the last half of 2020 or first half of 2021.

A recession prior to the 2020 election will be troubling for Trump’s chances. And that’s before we consider a recession’s severity or duration.

 

With that in mind, I have to ask: how prepared are you to maintain situational awareness during these two potential events?

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Always Out Front,

Samuel Culper

Samuel Culper is a former military intelligence NCO and contract Intelligence analyst. He spent three years in Iraq and Afghanistan and is now the intelligence and warfare researcher at Forward Observer.

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4 Comments

  1. I think your assessment of the possibilities during the 2020 election have a great deal of merit. I would like to suggest another thing to worry about. That thing is the possibility that Trump wins decisively. As we stand right now there are several left-wing groups that are practicing their violence. Of course there is Antifa. They have had success attacking right-leaning groups. So far their level of violence has been controlled. Mostly fist fights, sucker punches, and hitting people with objects like bike locks or steel pipes. Some entity is holding the reins. That same someone could loosen the bonds and encourage deadly violence. I consider that likelihood to be quite strong if Trump wins big.

    There are other groups as well. Black Lives Matter for one and the New Black Panthers for another. I’m sure others could be named.

    1. Good points. I take my preparations very seriously. From my mental preparedness – keeping my eyes open, using the intelligence-gathering skills I learned in the Army, practicing good old fashioned common sense, to my physical preparedness. I said all that to say that we need to be preparing ourselves on all fronts. Solid planning with our best effort courses of action with decision points at key events that will drive our decision making, but at the same time keeping our eyes and mind open to alternative actions we may need to make based on what’s happening around us. I’m a fan of planning, it’s absolutely necessary, but we have to remember the golden rule of conflict. “No plan survives first contact”. (Helmuth von Moltke the Elder) So I will be observing, reading and interpreting current events, and let my plans adjust fire accordingly.
      Hopefully, I will be like the men of Issachar. “Of the sons of Issachar, men who understood the times, with knowledge of what Israel should do…”
      1 Chr. 12:32
      I hope you do the same.

  2. There is another potential threat in 2020, this one economic. 1958 was the baby boom’s big year. In fact, more babies were born in 1958 than all other years of the baby boom combined. In 2020, those folks become eligible for Social Security. With such a large cohort demanding to collect their retirements, the government will have no choice but to go to the big filing cabinet in Parkersburg, WVa and pull out the S.S. IOUs that are stored there. They must sell bonds in order to pay their Social Security obligations. Now, people buy bonds all the time, bonds that finance projects that generate revenue that pays the bond holders. But these Social Security bonds aren’t going to generate revenue. Older folks are just going to eat the money. Nobody is going to want those bonds. So, the government will have to issue bonds and buy the bonds that they issue…not good. Inflation? Inflation means expanding the money supply/devaluing the currency. So yeah, inflation. Monetary troubles? Possible. Tax revolt? Likely, because the only way for the .gov to pay for the bonds that they print and buy is to double or more) the social security tax. Economic follow on effects? Maybe. Anyway, 2020 is going to suck.

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