The wife and I have a date night tonight to watch the first Democratic presidential debate. It will consist of her drinking wine and me yelling obscenities at the tv.
It will at least be instructive to see how Democrats respond to criticism of being too far Left or far too Centrist. That’s the central debate for Democrats in 2020 — not who is the best candidate, but who can actually beat Trump.
The candidate with the most convincing case is likely to win.
We’re just about 12 months from the Democratic nominating convention and 16 months from Election Day.
President Trump at this point has to be the favorite to win. According to Vegas, Trump has even odds. A handful of billionaires I follow say Trump has above average odds. Plus he has the incumbent advantage.
And I occasionally come across a Democratic strategist who says he or she is worried about what Trump 2020 campaign manager Brad Parscale is doing with social media ads. Apparently, Trump 2020 is out to an early and heavy start. That worries some Democrats who feel they’re falling behind because they don’t have a nominee.
There are two big things we have coming up in 2020 that deserve our attention, with regard to ramping up our level of preparedness.
1. The first is the 2020 election. I’m particularly concerned because those who see Trump as illegitimate may be tempted to do illegitimate things to prevent his re-election.
According to one researcher, Big Tech (Google, Facebook, etc.) could sway up to 15 million votes through online censorship and algorithm manipulation. That’s certainly enough to throw an election and perhaps no one has more on the line than Big Tech.
And then there’s the possibility of a contested or failed election. Like 2016, that’s among why worst case scenarios because a solution could take weeks or months to implement, and the outcome will necessarily inflame tensions for at least one half of the country.
2. The second thing we should consider is the possibility of a pre-election recession. Right now, our Recession Matrix clearly shows expectations for a recession in the last half of 2020 or first half of 2021.
A recession prior to the 2020 election will be troubling for Trump’s chances. And that’s before we consider a recession’s severity or duration.
With that in mind, I have to ask: how prepared are you to maintain situational awareness during these two potential events?
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Always Out Front,