20 MAY 16 – Executive Intelligence Summary


The National PMESII section is a break down of national- and regional-level Political, Military, Economic, Social, Infrastructure, and Information events and trends.   Appendix: Collection of acronyms and definitions used.

In this EXSUM…

  • An overview of the NATO-Russia conflict
  • An overview of the U.S.-China conflict
  • An overview of the West-Islamic World conflict

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Samuel Culper is a former military intelligence NCO and contract Intelligence analyst. He spent three years in Iraq and Afghanistan and is now the intelligence and warfare researcher at Forward Observer.


  1. FO: “These Muslims may not pledge their allegiance to the barbaric fighters of the Islamic State, but they do pledge their allegiance to Allah and to Islam. Ask the many Muslims in London or Frankfurt to whom they pay their allegiance. And that’s exactly what the Islamic State is counting on; their message is that Allah has appointed a caliph over the Islamic world and it requires their support. They don’t have to join the jihad, but they must support the expansion of the Caliphate. Most Muslims in Western societies hold Islam and the caliphate above their nation, and Islamic values above their nation’s values.”

    Sam, while I admire the heck out of your skills and knowledge (I just finished reading your primer and SHTF Intelligence books), I also know for a fact that you will agree with me that you, like me or anyone else, can be and are regularly wrong. This is such a case. This bias may have led you and Oathkeepers leadership into the horrific world of bigotry. We don’t even have this us-versus-them view for our biggest threat – our federal government! I think you and Oathkeepers leaders are suffering from losing sight of the forest from looking too much at one of the trees.

    Ron Paul speaks better for me. He doesn’t cross the line into ‘diplomatically’ attacking the Moslem religion. I don’t have to be an historian or intelligence expert to know that our constitution does not exempt Moslems. To do so is to create avoidable conflict where none is needed and will drive more Moslems to defend themselves from Oathkeepers and the like. I agree with Cat Thor who said at one of his preparedness classes here in Phoenix that he doesn’t care what religion a person belongs to as long as he follows the Constitution. You don’t have to know it all or be an intelligence analyst to understand this.

    I see nothing wrong with putting God before all else and I don’t see it as a threat. As a spiritual leader once said, “The world becomes as you see it.” Beware! As I explained to Jim Arroyo from Chino Valley in an email, if the day comes that I am fighting Moslems to defend myself and my buddy turns to me and says, “I told you so”, my reply will be, “No, you made it so.”

    FO: “Over the past several years, we’ve watched in horror as Muslim communities have instituted and local courts have upheld Sharia law. We’ve read the stories of law enforcement officers being blocked from access to Muslim areas, and then turning around and arresting native citizens for so-called “hate speech”.”

    Sam, here, I am sorry to say, you are no better than the MSM presstitutes. I don’t see this happening around me in my AO or anywhere close or anywhere in Arizona for that matter. Please don’t make these generalizations. Remember what you wrote about heuristic short-cuts because I think it applies here. BTW, the word Sharia generally means God’s law so readers need to keep this in mind as they observe how the Media misuses the term as they have the word ‘Terrorism’. Remember, Ammon Bundy is a terrorist, right?

    “Ultimately, Europe will discover that conflict is the only way to save itself, but it’s at a watershed moment.”

    Sam, it seems you are saying that the answer is to go to war against the religion of Islam. I couldn’t disagree more. When will we ever learn? The persecution of the Mormons, black racism, Jews, Irish, encampment of the Japanese and Germans and more should have taught us that knowledge can be a treacherous mistress. Let’s not add Moslems to this list.

    Here is a generalization of my own: I hear and understand that people think that Moslems in general treat their wives badly but let’s bear in mind that the Taj Mahal, one of the seven wonders of the world, is a mausoleum dedicated in grief by a Moslem ruler for his wife hundreds of years ago.

    1. Norman, thank you for the kind words. As far as me being wrong, it surely happens. But insofar as Islam is concerned, I am right and there’s over 1400 years of history to prove it. The reason why you’re not seeing these things in Arizona is a matter of time and geography. Give it time, and it will be in your geography. Just as Islam conquered much of Europe from the 800s to the 1600s, it’s going to make another attempt.

      When Europe is soon entrenched in civil wars, fighting Islamic gangs and being oppressed by Shariah law (already happening, by the way), then maybe you will understand. Be well.

  2. I’m new to this site and usually as such would watch and learn before I participate much. I will venture this observation though: that while this reproach of being bigots to any and all protectionist stances may be true of some groups, it may paralyze the very appropriate critical thought and analysis of a very real threat, one that is not covert or nuanced by any measure. By all means we must maintain our integrity and be self-aware so that we don’t become the evil we condemn, yet equally so we cannot be distracted by a straw or spurious argument that takes our eyes off an advancing enemy, by whatever name it goes by.

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